1. What’s the challenge? 2

2. Why does it matter? 2

3. Policy options and trade-offs 3

 3.1 Europe: don’t expect to swap defence for trade; decide economic goals 3

 3.2 US: pursue more independence 5

 3.3 China: be politely wary and work with the EU 6

 3.4 Britain in the world: develop middle-power relationships, use the 2027 G20, champion the rule of law 7

 3.5 Defence policy: make decisions on funding soon 8

4. Recommendations 10