About the Defense, Emerging Technology, and Strategy Program ii

About the Author ii

Acknowledgments and Disclaimers iii

Executive Summary 2

Introduction 3

  Numbers Game 4

  The Production Curve 4

  The (Non) Coherence 5

  Structural Tensions 6

Identification 8

  Fundamentals 8

  Ecosystem 8

  Situational Awareness 9

  Critique 10

Interception 11

  Unit Economics 11

  Existing Solutions 11

  Bottlenecks 13

Industrial and Political Economy 15

  Ukraine 15

  European Union 16

  Coherence 17

Recommendations 18

  Open API Conditioning 18

  IP Licensing Terms 19

  Dedicated Procurement Tracks 20

Implementation Risks 21

  Russian Pivot 21

  US Disengagement 21

  EU Misalignment 22

  Deterrence effects 22

Endnotes 23