List of abbreviations vi

Executive summary ix

1 Introduction, conceptual framing and scope 1

  1.1 A global turn to economic security 1

  1.2 Purpose of the study 3

  1.3 Scope and limitations 3

  1.4 Key concepts and analytical framework 4

  1.5 Structure of the study 5

2 Trade aspects of the EU economic security ‘doctrine’ 5

  2.1 From open trade policy to economic security doctrine 5

  2.2 Instruments relevant to economic pressure 9

  2.3 The 2023 European Economic Security Strategy 11

  2.4 The 2025 communication: From strategy to operational doctrine? 12

  2.5 Trade implications of the doctrine 12

  2.6 The debate in organised civil society: The EESC contribution 13

  2.7 Implications for the ACI and for this study 14

3 Economic coercion: The ACI’s legal framework 15

  3.1 Constitutive elements of economic coercion under Article 2 15

  3.2 Open questions and issues relevant for the examination phase 16

4 Mapping global patterns and forms of economic pressure affecting the EU 26

  4.1 The ‘catalogue’: Documenting pressure practices and identifying patterns 26

  4.2 Case studies: Impact assessment and EU toolbox mapping 34

5 General assessment: Strengthening EU resilience and responses 53

  5.1 Existing strengths and effective practices 53

  5.2 Main vulnerabilities identified 55

  5.3 Anticipation and early warning 57

  5.4 Preparedness and absorption 57

  5.5 Response and deterrence 58

  5.6 Overall assessment 59

6 Conclusion and forward-looking recommendations for the EU and the European Parliament 60

  6.1 Immediate actions (6-12 months) 61

  6.2 Medium-term options (12-36 months) 62

  6.3 Longer-term options (beyond 36 months) 63

  6.4 Trade-offs and constraints 64

7 References 66

  7.1 Primary legal sources 66

  7.2 Academic literature and expert/policy sources 70

8 Annexes 77

  8.1 Annex 1: Catalogue of economic pressure cases affecting the EU, 2018–2026 77

  8.2 Annex 2: Methodology: Constructing the ‘ACI-relevance’ score 80

  8.3 Annex 3: Toolbox of measures that could be applied to the case studies 83