Forewords 3

Acknowledgements 7

Executive summary 15

1 The Age of Electricity 23

  1.1 Introduction 24

  1.2 Electricity’s growing role in economies and energy systems 27

    1.2.1 Electricity in the global energy system 27

    1.2.2 Differences in electrification by sector and by region 30

    1.2.3 Deployment of electrification technologies 33

  1.3 Expanding and evolving electricity supply 34

  1.4 Impact of the current energy crisis 36

  1.5 The policy landscape for electrification 40

    1.5.1 Policies 40

    1.5.2 Nationally Determined Contributions 43

  1.6 Scenario definitions 45

2 Electrification in end-uses 47

  2.1 Outlooks for electrification in IEA scenarios 48

    2.1.1 Drivers of electrification 48

    2.1.2 High-level electrification outcomes 49

    2.1.3 Implications for electricity demand 50

  2.2 Economic electrification potential 51

    2.2.1 Economic potential by sector 51

    2.2.2 Economic potential by region 53

    2.2.3 Sensitivity of economic potential to changing conditions 54

    2.2.4 Higher efficiencies of electric technologies and cost-effective electrification 56

    2.2.5 Demand flexibility and cost-effective electrification 58

  2.3 Drivers of electrification in emerging market and developing economies 61

    2.3.1 Transport 61

    2.3.2 Buildings 63

    2.3.3 Industry 64

    2.3.4 Agriculture 65

  2.4 Transport electrification 67

    2.4.1 Transport technologies 68

    2.4.2 Transport strategies 72

    2.4.3 Transport potential 79

  2.5 Buildings electrification 80

    2.5.1 Buildings technologies 81

    2.5.2 Buildings strategies 83

    2.5.3 Buildings potential 87

  2.6 Industry electrification 88

    2.6.1 Industry technologies 89

    2.6.2 Industry strategies 90

3 Powering electrification 97

  3.1 Introduction 98

  3.2 Electricity generation 98

    3.2.1 HES with the NZE mix 100

    3.2.2 HES with the STEPS mix 107

    3.2.3 HES with the CPS mix 112

  3.3 Grids 114

    3.3.1 Grid expansion in the High Electrification Scenario 115

    3.3.2 Grid lead times and implementation challenges 116

    3.3.3 Solutions to accelerate grid expansion and modernisation 119

4 Implications 123

  4.1 Introduction 124

  4.2 Energy security and resilience 124

    4.2.1 Import dependence 124

    4.2.2 Electricity security 128

    4.2.3 Resilience 131

  4.3 Industrial ecosystem and secure supply chains 135

    4.3.1 The industrial ecosystem for electrification 135

    4.3.2 Critical minerals 138

    4.3.3 Manufacturing of technologies related to electrification 141

  4.4 Investment, affordability and employment 144

    4.4.1 Investment 144

    4.4.2 Electrification and employment 152

  4.5 Emissions 155

    4.5.1 CO2 emissions 155

    4.5.2 Air pollution emissions 158

  4.6 Inclusive electrification 159

    4.6.1 Electricity access gap 159

    4.6.2 Reliable electrification can unlock productive uses and foster economic development 163

    4.6.3 Productive uses can strengthen the case for electrification 166

    4.6.4 Making use of decentralised technologies 168

Annexes

Annex A. Definitions 175

Annex B. References 193