Foreword 3

Acknowledgements 4

Abbreviations and acronyms 10

Executive summary 12

1 Overview 15

  Portraits of informality 15

  Addressing the challenge of ageing with informality 19

  Automation and the employment prospects of informal workers 21

  Informal workers and emerging environmental risks 23

  Policy recommendations 25

  Notes 29

  References 30

2 Portraits of informality 33

  In brief 34

  Introduction 35

  Informality remains the norm in developing countries 36

  Informal employment often means working fewer hours and for a lower pay 43

  Often, but not always, informality and poverty are experienced together 55

  Earnings inequality is high in the informal economy, reflecting the diverse realities of workers 59

  Conclusion and policy discussion 68

  Annex 2.A. Country and time coverage of KIIbIH primary sources 71

  Annex 2.B. How to define and measure informality? 73

  Notes 77

  References 77

3 Addressing the challenge of ageing with informality 83

  In brief 84

  Introduction 85

  Developing countries face the double challenge of ageing and informality 85

  In developing countries, the large informality footprint jeopardises the livelihoods of many elderly 89

  Low enrolment in contributory pension schemes threatens the livelihoods of future retirees 104

  Many pension systems display institutional and structural gaps that prevent adequate coverage of informal workers 112

  Financing the expansion of pension systems is challenging but significant opportunities exist 121

  Conclusion and policy discussion 127

  Annex 3.A. Demographic typology 133

  Annex 3.B. Estimating the cost of non-contributory pensions 136

  Notes 138

  References 140

4 Automation and the employment prospects of informal workers 147

  In brief 148

  Introduction 149

  A global perspective on automation technologies and their impacts on employment 149

  Assessing the impacts of automation technologies on informal economy workers 157

  Conclusion and policy discussion 173

  Annex 4.A. Sensitivity analysis 177

  Annex 4.B. Methodology and data 181

  Notes 184

  References 184

5 Informal workers and emerging risks in the era of environmental degradation and climate change 193

  In brief 194

  Introduction 195

  Workers of the informal economy rely heavily on the natural environment for their livelihoods 196

  Informal workers face high risks from droughts and floods 204

  Heat stress disproportionately affects the productivity and income of informal economy workers 213

  Conclusion and policy discussion 228

  Annex 5.A. Environmental and climate risks: Concepts and application 237

  Annex 5.B. Methodology to estimate productivity losses associated with heat 243

  Notes 249

  References 250