Preface i

Summary ii

Figures vii

Tables vii

Boxes viii

Abbreviations viii

Chapter 1. Introduction 1

  1.1. Context 1

  1.2. Research objectives 2

  1.3. Research approach, caveats and limitations 3

  1.4. Structure of this report 6

Chapter 2. The information environment and its evolution 7

  2.1. What is the information environment? 7

2.  2. How is the information environment evolving? 10

  2.3. Summary: The information environment and its evolution 16

Chapter 3. Understanding implications of the future information environment for nuclear deterrence and decision-making 18

  3.1. Conceptualising nuclear decision-making in evolving information environments 18

  3.2. Stress 22

  3.3. Complexity 24

  3.4. Risk 27

  3.5. Accessibility 29

  3.6. Summary: Risks, vulnerabilities and opportunities for nuclear deterrence 31

Chapter 4. Situational factors 33

  4.1. Decision-maker characteristics 33

  4.2. Institutional characteristics 35

  4.3. Crisis and context characteristics 36

  4.4. Audience characteristics 37

  4.5. Platform and media characteristics 38

  4.6. Summary: Factors and conditions mediating information environment effects 39

Chapter 5. Conclusions and implications for the UK 41

  5.1. Key findings and implications 41

  5.2. Future research agenda 45

References 47