1 Introduction 2

2 Projection methodology 4

  2.1 Short-term versus long-term projections 4

  2.2 Domestic growth drivers 5

  2.3 Catch-up across countries 8

3 Projection studies 9

  3.1 Neoclassical approach 11

  3.2 Alternative approaches 18

4 Projection using G-Cubed 21

  4.1 Method 21

  4.2 Population 23

  4.3 Age-income profile 24

  4.4 Sectoral productivity 25

  4.5 Projection scenarios 26

  4.6 Projection results 31

5 Comparison 33

  5.1 The global economy 33

  5.2 Advanced economies 34

  5.3 Developing economies 35

  5.4 General remarks 37

6 Discussion 39

  6.1 Geopolitical fragmentation 39

  6.2 Government debt 39

  6.3 Public infrastructure 40

  6.4 Governance and institutions 40

7 Conclusion 41

References 42

Appendix: Summary of projection studies 48