Title page 1

Contents 6

Disclaimers 2

Abstract 3

Foreword 4

Acknowledgements 5

Executive Summary 8

Opportunities for Southeast Asia and India 8

Capacity and policy constraints across the region 9

Geopolitical trends shaping critical minerals supply chains 9

Diverse policy frameworks 9

The way forward 10

1. The critical mineral landscape in ASEAN and India 11

1.1. Critical minerals reserves and capacities in Southeast Asia 11

1.2. Critical minerals reserves and capacities in India 12

2. Market dependencies: Trade, investments and GVCs 16

2.1. Trade concentration and asymmetries 16

2.2. Key trends for market restrictions in critical mineral trade 17

2.3. Investment trends in energy, extractives and critical minerals 18

2.4. ASEAN and India in global value chains 20

3. National and sectoral policies for critical mineral development 21

3.1. Regional policy landscape in ASEAN 21

3.2. National policies frameworks 22

3.2.1. Indonesia 22

3.2.2. Philippines 23

3.2.3. Viet Nam 24

3.2.4. India 25

3.3. Policies along the critical-mineral supply chains 25

3.3.1. From mining to processing: Building domestic value addition 25

3.3.2. Downstream industrial development: Clean-technology manufacturing 26

3.3.3. EV and battery value chains 26

3.3.4. Private sector investment landscape 27

4. Geopolitical and trade risks in critical mineral markets 28

4.1. A changing strategic landscape 28

4.2. Geo-dynamics of critical mineral markets 29

4.3. Export controls and trade restrictions 29

4.4. Further geopolitical risks 30

4.5. Strategic responses and the case for cooperation 31

5. Environmental, Social and Responsible Business Conduct Considerations 32

5.1. Environmental considerations 32

5.2. Social and governance considerations 33

6. Emerging frameworks for cooperation on Critical Minerals 34

6.1. Bilateral partnerships 34

6.2. Plurilateral and multilateral cooperation 35

7. Conclusions: the way forward 36

7.1. Enhancing resilient supply chains and strengthening critical minerals markets through cooperation, transparency and innovation 36

7.1.1. From resource endowment to regional competitiveness 36

7.1.2. Strengthening market cooperation and transparency 37

7.1.3. Mobilising investment and skills for value addition 37

7.1.4. Advancing circularity and innovation 37

7.2. Towards a cooperative regional architecture 38

Annex A. Downstream critical mineral manufacturing: Southeast Asia as an integrated value chain hub 39

References 44

Table 1. Critical minerals in ASEAN - Reserves, key players, and strategic relevance 12

Table 2. India's net import reliance for critical minerals 13

Table 3. Relevant regional and international forums and initiatives for India and ASEAN 34

Figure 1. India's import value of critical minerals and battery materials (2018-2024) 13

Figure 2. Export value of critical mineral products by country/region in 2023 16

Figure 3. Import value of critical mineral material and components by country/region, 2023 17

Figure 4. Type of new export restriction measures introduced in 2022 and 2023 18

Figure 5. Annual Inward FDI flows 19

Figure 6. Flows of Inward FDI to Mining & Quarrying sector across ASEAN 19

Figure 7. Indonesia's nickel production far outpaces other countries 23

Figure 8. Photovoltaics industry supply chain 26

Boxes 15

Box 1. India-ASEAN relationship in critical minerals supply chains 15

Box 2. Indonesia's downstream push in the nickel sector 23

Box 3. Examples of initiatives aiming to enhance security of CRM supplies 28

Box 4. Industrial policy vs. environmental sustainability: The case of Indonesia's nickel export ban 30

Figure A.1. Viet Nam - Overall PV module production costs (2025-2030) 41

Figure A.2. Flows of Inward FDI to select sector across ASEAN (in USD Millions) 42

Figure A.3. Greenfield investment in ASEAN in supply chain-intensive manufacturing sectors 42

Annex Boxes 40

Box A.1. VinFast - Viet Nam's domestic EV manufacturer 40