About This Report iii

Summary iv

Figures and Table viii

CHAPTER 1 1

Why Study China’s Political Cycle and Bureaucratic Rhythms? 1

  Links Between the CCP Political Calendar and the PRC’s Bureaucratic Rhythms 2

  Study Approach 3

CHAPTER 2 4

Continuity and Change in China’s Political Cycle and Bureaucratic Rhythms 4

  Introduction 4

  CCP Leadership and Personnel Cycles 5

  CCP Meeting Calendar and Cycles 6

  Annual State and Bureaucratic Calendar 12

  Conclusions 18

CHAPTER 3 20

The Impact of Political Cycles and Bureaucratic Rhythms on U.S.-China Engagement 20

  The Life of the Chinese Party-State Matters for U.S.-China Engagement 20

  PRC and U.S. Analysts Agree That Political Cycles Matter but Present Limited Opportunities for Political Maneuvering 21

  China’s Political Cycle and Bureaucratic Rhythms Affect U.S.-China Engagement in Four Key Ways 23

  Conclusions 30

CHAPTER 4 32

Conclusion 32

  Changes in the PRC Political Cycle Pose Opportunities and Challenges for the United States 32

  Closing Thoughts 33

Abbreviations 34

Bibliography 35

About the Authors 41