Preface i

Summary iv

Acronyms and Abbreviations viii

Introduction

China’s Rise and the South China Sea 1

SHOJI Tomotaka

Chapter One

The Sino-U.S. Confrontation in the South China Sea: The Dynamics of a Growing, Complex Dispute 7

SHOJI Tomotaka

 Introduction 8

 The History of Sovereignty Disputes in the South China Sea 9

  The Emergence of Claimants from the 1970s to the 1980s 9

  Development into an Outstanding Issue between China and ASEAN 10

  A Brief De-escalati on of Tensions:

  Adoption of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties 11

 The Resurgence of the South China Sea Dispute:

 China’s Rise and Expanding Maritime Presence 13

 The South China Sea as a Focus of Great-Power Competition:

 The Entrenchment of Sino-U.S. Military Confrontation 17

 Conclusion 22

Chapter Two

The Evolution of China’s Naval Strategy and the South China Sea 25

IIDA Masafumi

 Introduction 26

 China’s Naval Strategic Transformation to the Far Seas 26

  From “Littoral Defense and Coastal Defense” to “Near Seas Defense” 26

  A New Strategy Encompassing the “Far Seas” 27

  A Further Emphasis on the “Far Seas” 29

 Sovereignty over Features and Maritime Rights 33

  Expansion of Control Through Military Force 33

  The Emergence of Maritime Law-Enforcement Agencies and the Militarization of the South China Sea 34

  Increasing Military Pressure on Claimant States 36

 Taiwan Reunification and Sino-U.S. Competition 38

  Increasing Military Pressure on Taiwan 38

  South China Sea as a Springboard for Confronting the U.S. Forces 40

 Conclusion 44

Chapter Three

The China Coast Guard: An Organization with Military and Administrative Functions and Its Roles in the South China Sea 45

GOTO Yohei

 Introduction 46

 China’s Perception of the South China Sea Dispute as an “Internal Matter” 47

 Institutional Evolution of the CCG 48

  From a Fragmented Maritime Law-Enforcement Architecture to the First Consolidation 48

Incorporation into the CMC and the PAP 51

  The Enactment of the Coast Guard Law 52

  Enhancement of Equipment, Including Platforms Shared with the PLAN 54

 Relations with the PLAN and the Maritime Militia 55

  The Degree of Jointness between the CCG and the PLAN 55

  Relations with the Maritime Militia 58

 The CCG as a Central Actor in Maritime Governance 65

  Adjustments of Maritime Statutes following the Enactment of the Coast Guard Law 65

  The CCG’s Involvement in China’s Efforts to Strengthen Control over Scarborough Shoal 65

  The Promotion of Maritime Governance through Cooperation with Other Administrative Agencies and Its Implications 66

 Conclusion 67

Chapter Four

Divergence and Commonality among Southeast Asia’s Responses 69

SHOJI Tomotaka

 Introduction 70

 The Philippines: An Expansion of Alliance-Based Cooperation 70

 Vietnam: A Priority on Stable Relations with China 75

 Malaysia: A Consistently Moderate Posture 79

 The Future of ASEAN and the Code of Conduct 82

 Conclusion 83

Conclusion

China and the South China Sea: Past and Future 85

SHOJI Tomotaka

Notes 89