국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

Abstract/Résumé 4

Introduction and motivation 7

Framework of empirical analysis 8

Baseline results 16

Policy results 23

Policy implications for supporting workers' just transition in the greening economy 42

References 47

Annex 56

The interpretation of odds ratios in logistic regression models 56

Data sources, definitions and technical adjustments 56

Detailed information on estimations and regression outputs 65

Robustness analysis 84

Table 1. Individual and cyclical drivers of discouragement effects 22

Table 2. Transitions from non-employment to green employment: main results on education, skills and training policies 25

Table 3. Transitions from non-employment to green employment: main results on labour market policies & institutions 28

Table 4. Transitions from non-employment to green employment: main results on policy barriers to business entry and competition, occupational entry regulations 32

Table 5. Transitions from non-employment to green employment: main results on housing & geographical mobility 33

Table 6. Long-term unemployment following high-polluting/non-high-polluting displacement: main results on education, skills and training policies 35

Table 7. Long-term unemployment following high-polluting/non-high-polluting displacement: main results on labour market policies & institutions 36

Table 8. Long-term unemployment following high-polluting/non-high-polluting displacement: main results on policy barriers to business entry and competition,... 37

Table 9. Long-term unemployment following high-polluting/non-high-polluting displacement: main results on housing and geographical mobility 38

Table 10. Wrapping-up key results on policies and labour market transitions in the greening economy: a snapshot overview 39

Figure 1. Green and high-polluting jobs: the big picture, 2011-2019 10

Figure 2. Green jobs: selected distributional patterns, 2019 11

Figure 3. Transitions from non-employment to green employment: key results 18

Figure 4. Transitions from employment to unemployment & displacement effects from high-polluting jobs 20

Figure 5. Transitions from unemployment to green employment: illustrative policy simulations 40

Figure 6. Transitions from study-related inactivity to green employment: illustrative policy simulations 41

Figure 7. Long-term unemployment risks following displacement from high-polluting jobs: illustrative policy simulations 42

Boxes

Box 1. Measuring labour market transitions with European Labour Force Survey data 12

Box 2. Discouragement effects: are workers displaced from high-polluting jobs different? 21

Box 3. Place-based policies to support workers and communities affected by the downsize of high-polluting activities: lessons from countries' experiences 44

Box 4. Skills-assessment and anticipation exercises to help matching supply and demand for green skills: insigts from recent OECD work 45

Annex Tables

Table A1/Table A11. Data sources used for the construction of green and high-polluting jobs indicators 58

Table A2/Table A12. Recoding of regions 60

Table A3/Table A13. Data definitions and sources for policy and cyclical explanatory variables 61

Table A4/Table A14. Estimation samples by transition and country (number of observations) 65

Table A5/Table A15. Transition from non-employment to green employment: baseline results and robustness variants 66

Table A6/Table A16. Transition from study-related inactivity to green employment: baseline results and robustness variants 67

Table A7/Table A17. Transitions from employment to unemployment: baseline results and robustness variants 68

Table A8/Table A18. Policy regressions - full regression output 69

Table A9/Table A19. Robustness analysis 1, 2 and 3: alternative cyclical variables, reweighting, lagged policy variables 85

Table A10/Table A20. Robustness analysis 4: multivariate policy regression framework 88

Annex Figures

Figure A1/Figure A8. From US green tasks classifications to green jobs scores across European countries: a cross-walking and weighting exercise 59

Figure A2/Figure A9. From Eurostat air emission accounts to high-polluting jobs scores across European countries: overview of a new approach 59