1 Introduction 2

2 Background 7

2.1 Adult social care in England 7

2.1.1 Funding 7

2.1.2 Workforce 8

2.2 Retail jobs and the long-term care policy debate 9

3 Data 10

3.1 Adult social care data 10

3.2 Supermarket and warehouse data 12

3.3 Defining an affected provider 13

3.4 Local area controls 14

3.5 Summary statistics 15

4 Empirical Strategy 16

5 Results 19

5.1 Total staff 19

5.2 Vacancies and turnover 21

5.3 Robustness 24

5.4 Interpretation and mechanisms 28

6 Conclusion 30