EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS 2

1. INTRODUCTION 4

2. AIRBUS - A SUCCESS DRIVEN BY SPECIFIC CONDITIONS AND SOME LUCK 7

  2.1. THE AERONAUTICS MARKET AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR (WWII) 7

    2.1.1. HISTORY MATTERS IN PRESENT-DAY PERSPECTIVES OF THE EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGICAL GAP 7

    2.1.2. UNITED STATES’ RISING DOMINANCE IN AERONAUTICS: A MATTER OF BOTH SCALE AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY 8

    2.1.3. THE PROSPECT OF AN AVIATION MARKET IN EXPANSION 9

  2.2. AIRBUS WAS JUST ONE OF MANY OPTIONS, NOT THE ONLY OR FAVOURED ONE 9

    2.2.1. NATIONAL INITIATIVES BASED ON CONCENTRATION AND RATIONALISATION OF THE NATIONAL INDUSTRIES 9

    2.2.2. THE RISE OF MULTIPLE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS AT BOTH TRANSATLANTIC AND EUROPEAN LEVELS 10

    2.2.3. A COMMUNITY OPTION PROPOSED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION AND REJECTED BY MEMBER STATES 11

  2.3. AIRBUS’ INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY: GOOD FORTUNE AND GEOECONOMIC CONDUCIVE FORCES 12

    2.3.1. SERVICING THE EUROPEAN MARKET: BOTH A STRATEGIC DECISION AND A MATTER OF GOOD FORTUNE 12

    2.3.2. INTRA-EUROPEAN GEOECONOMIC (DIS)EQUILIBRIUM FACTORS AS ENABLERS 12

    2.3.3. A FAIR-RETURN-DRIVEN LEGAL FRAMEWORK 14

    2.3.4. NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS AS RISK-TAKERS, PROCUREMENT AND SALES GUARANTORS 15

3. COMPARING AIRBUS TO OTHER RELEVANT INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS 17

  3.1. CATCHING UP WITH US ADVANCE IN THE DIGITAL INDUSTRY: THE IT & CLOUD AIRBUS CASES 17

    3.1.1. A FAST-FAILING INTER-FIRM AND INTER-GOVERNMENTAL ATTEMPT: UNIDATA 17

    3.1.2. THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION COMES TO THE RESCUE BUT IN VAIN: THE BIG 12 IT ROUNDTABLE 18

    3.1.3. GAIA-X: THE "AIRBUS OF CLOUD" IN PERSPECTIVE 21

  3.2. CATCHING UP IN SPACE-BASED RADIO NAVIGATION: THE GALILEO PROGRAM’S ROCKY ROAD 23

    3.2.1. GALILEO'S DUAL OBJECTIVE: SOVEREIGNTY AND COMPETITIVENESS 23

    3.2.2. AN UNPRECEDENTED PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP GOVERNANCE MODEL 24

    3.2.3. FAIR-RETURN DYNAMICS AS AN OBSTACLE TO THE PROJECT 25

    3.2.4. A EUROPEAN ALTERNATIVE TO ELON MUSK’S STARLINK: IRIS² IN PERSPECTIVE 26

4. LESSONS FROM THE PAST AND CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS 29

  4.1. WHAT THE CASE STUDIES TELL US: FOUR DRIVING FORCES SHAPING EUROPEAN INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION 29

    4.1.1. THE CENTRALITY OF FAIR RETURN DYNAMICS 29

    4.1.2. COMPLEMENTARITY, SUBSTITUTABILITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRIAL CAPABILITIES 30

    4.1.3. MARKET STRUCTURE, PROCUREMENT AND THE CAPACITY TO CREATE DEMAND 30

    4.1.4. THE EUROPEAN VERSUS EXTRA-EUROPEAN PARTNERSHIP DILEMMA 31

  4.2. FROM PAST LESSONS TO PRESENT-DAY POLICY CHOICES: SCALING UP EUROPEAN INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION 32

    4.2.1. FINANCING INDUSTRIAL POLICY PROJECTS: THE MFF AND THE EUROPEAN COMPETITIVENESS FUND 32

    4.2.2. IPCEIS: EUROPEAN PROJECTS FINANCED THROUGH NATIONAL CAPACITIES 35

    4.2.3. CREATING EUROPEAN DEMAND: “BUY EUROPEAN” AND PUBLIC PROCUREMENT 37

    4.2.4. EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS AND COMPETITION POLICY: SCALE FOR WHOM? 37

    4.2.5. A EUROPEAN DARPA: CAN EUROPE COMBINE FINANCING, INNOVATION AND DEMAND? 39

5. CONCLUSION: BEYOND THE AIRBUS ANALOGY 41

BIBLIOGRAPHY: 43

ABOUT CERRE 54

ABOUT THE AUTHOR 55