Executive summary 4
1. Introduction 6
2. Data and methodology 9
3. Effect of the reform on individual incomes and government finances 11
4. Effects on household incomes and poverty 18
4.1 Effect on household incomes 18
4.2 Effect on income poverty 20
4.3 Drivers of the large increase in poverty 24
5. Conclusion 29
Appendix 31
References 34