국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

About the authors 6

Foreword 11

1. Industrial policy in Europe: past and future 13

1. Europe's industrial policy debate: a brief history 13

2. Europe's industrial policy revival 15

3. Europe's industrial policy trilemma 19

References 27

2. An innovation-driven industrial policy for Europe 29

1. Introduction 29

2. The case for industrial policy 30

3. Governing industrial policy 33

4. The DARPA model 35

5. The case for European DARPAs 37

References 40

3. Productivism and new industrial policies: learning from the past, preparing for the future 42

1. Introduction 42

2. Business incentives with a good-jobs focus 45

3. Governance considerations for RBBs 51

4. Labour-friendly innovation policies 54

5. Margins of technological choice 59

6. Is there a role for policy? 65

References 69

4. Industrial policy and technological sovereignty 72

1. Introduction 72

2. Technological sovereignty: the concept 73

3. Conceptual foundations of technological sovereignty in an international context 78

4. Industrial policy to establish and safeguard technological sovereignty of an economy 86

References 89

5. Cooperation or conflict? Will industrial policy produce solutions or generate unmanageable conflicts? 90

1. The core of the matter 90

2. Situating industrial policy 95

3. A green transformation 97

4. Chips with everything 102

5. Conflict or collaboration? 104

References 106

6. Green industrial policy: the necessary evil to avoid a climate catastrophe 107

1. Introduction 107

2. Green industrial policy and its intended consequences 110

3. Unintended consequences 111

4. Policy implications 117

References 120

7. Industrial strategies for the green transition 123

1. Introduction 123

2. Green industrial strategies are needed 126

3. Innovation and technology diffusion incentives are the foundation for green industrial strategies 134

4. Framework conditions and demand-side support are also key components of green industrial strategies 137

5. Competition and business dynamism are key for structural change 142

6. Conclusion 146

References 147

8. A more globally minded European green industrial policy 153

9. Europe's green industrial policy 166

1. Introduction 166

2. Principles for an effective green industrial policy in Europe 167

3. Designing green industrial policy 169

4. An overview of Europe's current green industrial policy 171

5. Recommendations for a more effective green industrial policy in Europe 179

6. Conclusions 184

References 185

10. Smart green industrial policy 187

1. Industrial policy is back 187

2. Contemporary green industrial policy 189

3. Identifying green sectors for intervention 192

4. Regions are unique and this drives development 194

5. Identifying regional comparative advantage 197

6. The new energy map: evolving factors of production 201

7. 'Smart' green industrial policy 204

8. Conclusion 207

References 208

11. Industrial policy for electric vehicle supply chains and the US-EU fight over the Inflation Reduction Act 211

1. Introduction 211

2. The US policy objectives for its electric vehicle tax credits 213

3. The effects of the IRA on electric vehicle supply chains 224

4. The European response to the Inflation Reduction Act 230

5. The US policy response to European pleas and other announcements 242

6. Eligibility for US tax credits, US imports of electric vehicles, and leasing 246

7. Conclusion 250

References 254

12. A new pharma industrial policy for Europe? Lessons from COVID-19 257

1. Introduction 257

2. Vaccine development, authorisation and production 257

3. Securing supplies and setting up delivery systems 263

4. Insufficient public leverage on the innovation/affordability tradeoff of new drugs 264

5. Conclusion 270

References 271

9. Europe's green industrial policy 172

Table 1. Europe's main green industrial policy tools 172

Table 2. IPCEIs in the EU 177

11. Industrial policy for electric vehicle supply chains and the US-EU fight over the Inflation Reduction Act 215

Table 1. Key events affecting US policy on electric vehicles 215

Table 2. Key requirements for qualifying for a tax credit under Sections 30D and 45W of the IRA 229

Table 3. Tariffs on electric vehicles imposed by the US, EU and China in 2023 237

6. Green industrial policy: the necessary evil to avoid a climate catastrophe 108

Figure 1. Manufacturing, share of world total 108

Figure 2. Gross national expenditure, share of world 114

7. Industrial strategies for the green transition 127

Figure 1. Global low-carbon patenting efforts have declined 127

Figure 2. Taxonomy of industrial policy instruments 131

Figure 3. Industrial policy priorities in nine selected OECD countries, industrial policy expenditures by eligibility criteria in 2021, % of total industrial policy subsidies... 134

Figure 4. Emerging technologies are strongly linked with universities and scientific research, automotive technology patent citations, 2000-2019 139

Figure 5. Automotive sector, patent portfolio of selected firms, by technology, 2016-2019 145

9. Europe's green industrial policy 170

Figure 1. The new industrial policy approach as a process of institutionalised collaboration and dialogue 170

10. Smart green industrial policy 190

Figure 1. Correlation of the 2020 standardised RCA with the same technology's past standardised RCA 190

Figure 2. Historically, ferrous metal facilities were built close to coal deposits 202

11. Industrial policy for electric vehicle supply chains and the US-EU fight over the Inflation Reduction Act 216

Figure 1. The US lags the EU and China in electric vehicle sales 216

Figure 2. US electric vehicle exports are also trailing China and the EU 219

Figure 3. The EU used to import electric vehicles from the United States but now mostly imports from China and South Korea 240

Figure 4. Trade war tariffs wiped out US electric vehicle exports to China; exports to the EU have also suffered, but exports to Canada have grown 241

Figure 5. Major EU electric vehicle export destinations include the US, UK, and Norway 242

Figure 6. US imports of electric vehicles from the EU and South Korea have continued growing despite the IRA 247

Figure 7. US electric vehicle leases have increased since the eligibility for IRA tax credits was expanded 249

Boxes

9. Europe's green industrial policy 175

Box 1. EU Industrial Alliances in the clean-tech supply chain 175

10. Smart green industrial policy 194

Box 1. Energy-intensive industries typically have low value-added 194

Box 2. Problems with picking winners 196

Box 3. From official statistics to big data 200