국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

1. Introduction 7

2. Background and literature 8

3. Modeling approach and data 10

3.1. The MINDSET model 10

3.2. Scenario description 12

3.2.1. Policy basket and country selection 12

3.2.2. Economic structure in selected countries and readiness for clean energy transition 13

3.2.3. Clean energy investments 15

4. Discussion of results 17

4.1. Ambitious investment and high potential demand for jobs - winners under 1.5C 20

4.1.1. Egypt 20

4.1.2. India 22

4.1.3. Pakistan 25

4.2. Coal mining winners 26

4.2.1. Indonesia 26

4.2.2. South Africa 28

4.3. Muddling through 31

4.3.1. Mexico 31

4.3.2. Thailand 32

4.3.3. Philippines 33

4.4. Challenged by underinvestment 35

4.4.1. Brazil 35

4.4.2. Türkiye 37

4.4.3. Colombia 38

5. Summary and conclusions 38

6. References 40

Table 1. Overview of investment under the scenario and 2019 emission shares 17

Table 2. Overview of results from scenario 1.5C 17

Figure 1. Output shares of aggregated sectors in percent 13

Figure 2. Sectoral shares of employment, percent 14

Figure 3. Employment shares in sectors relevant for the clean energy transition 15

Figure 4. Investment in clean energy, USD billion 16

Figure 5. Employment effects by sector, relative difference to base 18

Figure 6. Employment effects by country, absolute and relative difference to baseline 19

Figure 7. Sectoral output by driver, absolute (in MM USD) and relative difference (in %) to the baseline - Egypt 21

Figure 8. Additional labor demand by skill level - Egypt, absolute and relative differences to baseline 22

Figure 9. Additional labor demand by gender - Egypt, absolute and relative differences to baseline 22

Figure 10. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - India 23

Figure 11. Additional labor demand by skill level - India, absolute and relative differences to baseline 24

Figure 12. Additional labor demand by gender - India, absolute and relative differences to baseline 24

Figure 13. Additional labor demand by skill level - Pakistan, absolute and relative differences to baseline 25

Figure 14. Additional labor demand by gender - Pakistan, absolute and relative differences to baseline 26

Figure 15. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Indonesia 27

Figure 16. Additional labor demand by skill level - Indonesia, absolute and relative differences to baseline 28

Figure 17. Additional labor demand by gender - Indonesia, absolute and relative differences to baseline 28

Figure 18. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - South Africa 29

Figure 19. Additional labor demand by skill level - South Africa, absolute and relative differences to baseline 30

Figure 20. Additional labor demand by gender - South Africa, absolute and relative differences to baseline 30

Figure 21. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Mexico 31

Figure 22. Additional labor demand by skill level - Mexico, absolute and relative differences to baseline 32

Figure 23. Additional labor demand by gender - Mexico, absolute and relative differences to baseline 32

Figure 24. Additional labor demand by skill level - Thailand, absolute and relative differences to baseline 33

Figure 25. Additional labor demand by gender - Thailand, absolute and relative differences to baseline 33

Figure 26. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Philippines 34

Figure 27. Additional labor demand by skill level - Philippines, absolute and relative differences to baseline 34

Figure 28. Additional labor demand by gender - Philippines, absolute and relative differences to baseline 35

Figure 29. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Brazil 36

Figure 30. Additional labor demand by skill level - Brazil, absolute and relative differences to baseline 36

Figure 31. Additional labor demand by gender - Brazil, absolute and relative differences to baseline 37

Figure 32. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Türkiye 37

Figure 33. Additional labor demand by gender - Colombia, absolute and relative differences to baseline 38