국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5

CHAPTER 1. BACKGROUND 15

CHAPTER 2. FORECAST METHODOLOGY 21

2.1. Scope of the Analysis 22

2.2. Modelling Methodology 24

CHAPTER 3. SCENARIO DESIGN 33

3.1. Influencing Factors 34

3.2. Decarbonization Measures 34

CHAPTER 4. MODEL RESULTS 57

4.1. Base Year Calibration 58

4.2. Scenario Projections 60

4.3. Attribution Analysis of Road Transport Decarbonization 69

4.4. GHG Emissions and Air Pollutant Co-control Potentials 78

CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION 83

APPENDIX A. SOCIOECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND DEMAND FORECASTING METHODS 87

APPENDIX B. LIFETIME TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP PROJECTION 90

APPENDIX C. BIOFUEL CONSIDERATIONS 93

ABBREVIATIONS 94

ENDNOTES 94

REFERENCES 95

Table 1. Vehicle Classification Based on the Standard on Road Traffic Management-Types of Motor Vehicles (GA802-2019) 22

Table 2. The Scopes of Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions in This Study 24

Table 3. Qualitative Assessment of the Data Sources Used to Estimate Emissions 27

Table 4. Qualitative Assessment of the Data Sources Used to Estimate Abatement Costs 30

Table 5. Comprehensive Decarbonization Measures to Mitigate Road Transport Emissions 34

Table 6. Policies and Announced Targets in the Stated Policy Scenario 41

Table 7. Operational Efficiency of the Truck Industry in China, the European Union, and the United States 42

Table 8. Fleet Penetration of Alternative Vehicles/Fuels in 2020 44

Table 9. Progression along the S-Curve under the Stated Policy Scenario 46

Table 10. Compulsory Energy Efficiency Standards and Regulations in China 49

Table 11. Power Mix and Hydrogen Production Mix under Different Scenarios 54

Table 12. Key Parameters in the Five Scenarios 55

Table 13. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Peak Year and in 2060 under Different Scenarios 61

Table 14. Energy Demand in the Peak Year and in 2060 under Different Scenarios 65

Table 15. Key Targets in the Stated Policy Scenario 69

Table 16. Key Targets and Policy Interventions to Achieve Deep Decarbonization 71

Table 17. The Co-control Effects of Different Decarbonization Measures 80

Figure 1. Transport Emissions Growth Trajectories and the Shares of Transport Emissions in Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (excluding LULUCF)... 16

Figure 2. Distribution of Vehicle Types in China in 2020 23

Figure 3. Emission Forecasting for Freight Transport 26

Figure 4. Emission Forecasting for Passenger Transport 26

Figure 5. Growth in Passenger Car Ownership, Freight Tonne-Kilometers, and Gross Domestic Product per Capita (2005-20) 34

Figure 6. Vehicle and Passenger Car Ownership per 1,000 Persons in China and Other Regions 35

Figure 7. Predictions for Car Saturation Levels by Existing Research and This Study 36

Figure 8. Existing Projections for China's Domestic Freight Tonne-Kilometers 36

Figure 9. Energy/Emission Intensities of Different Modes 37

Figure 10. Changes in Passenger Transport Mode Share in China 37

Figure 11. Freight Mode Share of Domestic Tonne-Kilometers in China and Comparisons with North America, Europe, and India 38

Figure 12. Paradigm Shift in Transit Services: From Provider-Oriented Services to User-Oriented Services 39

Figure 13. Projections of China's Future Freight (Railway and Roadway) Mode Shares out of Total Domestic Tonne-Kilometers in Existing Studies 40

Figure 14. China's Heavy-Duty Truck Fleet Size Projections (2020-60) under Different Scenarios 43

Figure 15. Market Share of New Energy Vehicles in Annual Sales of Respective Vehicle Segments (2012-November 2021) 44

Figure 16. Fleet Mix of Heavy-Duty Trucks by Gross Vehicle Weight and Type 48

Figure 17. Projections for NEV Market Share and Fleet Penetration in Existing Studies 48

Figure 18. Fuel Consumption Improvement Targets in the Roadmap (2020-35) 50

Figure 19. Energy Efficiency of New Energy Vehicle Tractor Trailers with Gross Vehicle Weights above 36 Tonnes in 2020 and 2030 51

Figure 20. Current Power Mix and Hydrogen Production Mix in China 51

Figure 21. WTW Emissions (TTW + WTT Emissions) of Different Powertrains by Vehicle Segment under the Current Power Mix (2020) and Hydrogen... 52

Figure 22. Power Mix and Hydrogen Production Mix Based on China's Current Commitments 52

Figure 23. Emissions of Different Powertrains by Vehicle Segment under the Power Mix and Hydrogen Production Mix in the Stated Policy Scenario 53

Figure 24. GHG Emissions from China's Road Transport Sector in 2020 58

Figure 25. Breakdowns of Vehicle Stocks, GHG Emissions, and Air Pollutants in 2020 59

Figure 26. Carbon Dioxide and Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections under Different Scenarios 60

Figure 27. Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions Projections under Different Scenarios 62

Figure 28. Total Energy and Petroleum Consumption in the Road Transport Sector 63

Figure 29. Petroleum Consumption in the Road Transport Sector 63

Figure 30. Energy Demand Breakdowns under Different Scenarios 64

Figure 31. Air Pollutant Emissions from the Road Transport Sector 66

Figure 32. Air Pollutant Reductions Resulting from the Introduction of China 6 Standard 67

Figure 33. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potentials of Key Decarbonization Interventions: From the BAU to Stated_policy Scenarios 69

Figure 34. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potentials of Key Decarbonization Interventions: From Stated_policy to DeepDecarb Scenarios 70

Figure 35. GHG Reduction Potentials of Key Decarbonization Interventions: From Business as Usual to Deep Decarbonization 72

Figure 36. Annual Sales in the Stated_policy and Natural Gas Scenarios 74

Figure 37. Comparison of Carbon Dioxide and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Stated_policy and Natural Gas Scenarios 74

Figure 38. Low-Carbon Investments (2020-60) under Different Scenarios 75

Figure 39. Annual Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for 2025 76

Figure 40. Annual Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for 2030 77

Figure 41. Annual Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for 2050 77

Figure 42. Co-control Potentials of Different Decarbonization Measures Compared with the Business as Usual Scenario 78

Boxes

Box 1. Transport-Related Air Pollutant Emissions in China 18

Box 2. China's End-of-Pipe Emission Control Standards 68

Box Figures

Figure B1.1. Emissions from the Road and Non-road Transport Sectors 18

Figure B1.2. Annual Air Pollutant Emissions from China's Road Transport Sector (2011-20) 19

Figure B2.1. Limits on Nitrogen Oxide and Particulate Matter Emissions from Diesel Heavy-Duty Trucks in China, the European Union, and the United States 68

Table A1. Long-Term Income Elasticities for Freight Demand in China, the United States, and Germany 89

Table B1. Indirect Cost Multiplier for High Technology Complexity 91

Figure A1. Population and GDP Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 87

Figure A2. China's Passenger Car Ownership Projection (2020-60) under Different Car Saturation Levels 88

Figure A3. China's Domestic Freight Demand Forecast 89

Figure B1. Lifetime Total Cost of Ownership Projections for the Mainstreamed Vehicle Models of Different Vehicle Segments 92