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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY v
Key Findings vi
Future Directions in Physician Workforce Research ix
INTRODUCTION 1
UPDATED PROJECTIONS 3
Total Physician Supply and Demand 4
Primary Care Physician Supply and Demand 6
Non-Primary Care Physician Supply and Demand 9
Medical Specialties 9
Surgical Specialties 11
Primary-Care-Trained Hospitalists 13
Other Specialties 16
COVID-19 PHYSICIAN WORKFORCE IMPLICATIONS 19
The COVID-19 Impact on Population Projections and the Implications for Physician Demand 19
Acute COVID-19 Implications as COVID-19 Shifts From Pandemic to Endemic 19
Long-COVID Implications for Demand 20
COVID-19 Exacerbating Physician Burnout 21
PROVIDERS REQUIRED IF U.S. ACHIEVED EQUITY IN HEALTH CARE UTILIZATION 22
SUPPLY MODELING 25
Supply Modeling Inputs, Assumptions, and Scenarios 25
Supply Projections 28
DEMAND MODELING 32
Demand Modeling Inputs, Assumptions, and Scenarios 32
Population Characteristics and Projections 32
Demand for Health Care Services 34
Patterns of Care Delivery 34
Advanced Practice Registered Nurses and Physician Associates 35
Scenarios Modeled 37
Demand Projections 39
National Demand 39
Demand by Population Demographics 42
Evolving Care Delivery System Demand Implications 44
Geographic Distribution of Physician Demand 50
Physician Demand by Census Region. 50
Physician Demand by Urban-Rural Location 52
CONCLUSIONS 55
APPENDIX 1: DATA AND METHODS 56
Synopsis of Study Methods 56
Supply Model Overview and Updates 57
Demand Model Overview and Updates 58
APPENDIX 2: ADDITIONAL TABLES AND CHARTS 61
NOTES 72
REFERENCES 73
