목차
Title page 1
Contents 5
Preface 4
Acknowledgements 8
Executive summary 9
1. From recovery to sustained resilience? 13
Tepid growth is testing labour markets 13
Benign headline jobs figures hide structural vulnerabilities 15
Outlook: Uncertainty hinders structural change 27
References 30
2. Employment and social trends by region 32
Africa 32
Labour market trends in Northern Africa 33
Labour market trends in sub-Saharan Africa 33
Formalizing and bolstering remittances as a form of private capital mobilization 35
Americas 36
Labour market trends in Latin America and the Caribbean 37
Labour market trends in Northern America 37
Climate-related risks and the Caribbean tourism industry 39
Arab States 41
Labour market trends in the Arab States 41
The adoption of artificial intelligence and digital technologies and widening gender gaps 43
Asia and the Pacific 45
Labour market trends in Asia and the Pacific 45
Progress across several decent work deficits has stalled 47
Transitions and the implications for job creation and disruption 47
Europe and Central Asia 49
Labour market trends in Europe and Central Asia 49
Slow productivity growth in the European Union is expected to weigh on real wage growth 52
References 53
3. Productive employment and spatial inequalities 59
Productivity has slowed on the back of rising spatial inequalities 59
The nature of structural transformation and productivity 62
Spatial inequalities and structural shifts 66
Positive spillovers 71
References 72
Appendix. Data sources and methodology 75
Tables 7
Table 1.1. Change in per capita GDP from increasing women's labour force participation rates 21
Table 2.1. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, labour force, informal employment and working poverty, regional and subregional, Africa, 2021-26 34
Table 2.2. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, labour force, informal employment and working poverty, regional and subregional, Americas, 2021-26 38
Table 2.3. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, labour force, informal employment and working poverty, regional and subregional, Arab States, 2021-26 42
Table 2.4. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, labour force, informal employment and working poverty, regional and subregional, Asia and the Pacific, 2021-26 46
Table 2.5. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, youth unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Europe and Central Asia, 2021-26 50
Figures 6
Figure 1.1. Change in labour force participation rates between 2014 and 2024, by sex and age, world and country income groups 16
Figure 1.2. Change in labour force participation rates between 2014 and 2019 and between 2019 and 2024, by sex and age group, high-income countries 17
Figure 1.3. Global unemployment rates by age and sex, 1991-2026 17
Figure 1.4. Youth unemployment rates, world and country income groups, 1991-2026 18
Figure 1.5. Youth not in employment, education or training (NEET), by sex, world, 1991-2026 19
Figure 1.6. Gender gap in unemployment rate, world and country income groups, 2020-26 19
Figure 1.7. Jobs gap rate, by sex, world 20
Figure 1.8. Employment growth by country income group, 2019-26 22
Figure 1.9. Evolution of real wages and labour productivity, world (index, 2020 = 100) 22
Figure 1.10. Growth of GDP per worker, world and country income groups, 2010-26 23
Figure 1.11. Market power and labour market outcomes 24
Figure 1.12. Global employment by broad sector (percentage of total employment) 25
Figure 1.13. Annual growth of formal and informal employment, world, 2010-15 and 2024 26
Figure 1.14. Share of informal employment, world and country income groups, 2004 and 2024 26
Figure 1.15. Share of working poverty and employment by economic class, world, 1991-2024 27
Figure 1.16. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, world 28
Figure 2.1. Remittances, ODA and FDI, sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-23 35
Figure 2.2. Direct and indirect employment in the tourism industry, share of total employment, Caribbean countries and non-mainland territories, 2019 39
Figure 2.3. Proportion of employment with potential exposure to automating effects of generative AI, by sex and subregion 44
Figure 2.4. Changes in selected labour market indicators, Asia and the Pacific, 2004-24 48
Figure 2.5. Selected indicators relating to labour productivity, EU-27, 2010-23 51
Figure 3.1. The global productivity frontier, 1991-2024 60
Figure 3.2. Industrial policy interventions worldwide 61
Figure 3.3. Productivity growth: Contributions from within-sector growth versus structural transformation 63
Figure 3.4. Labour productivity across the manufacturing and service sectors 63
Figure 3.5. Sectors' performance in productivity and employment growth in Ghana, 2013-22 64
Figure 3.6. Change in spatial inequality and change in manufacturing's share in the workforce 66
Figure 3.7. Change in spatial inequality and change in modern (high-end) services' share in the workforce 67
Figure 3.8. Concentration of sectoral employment across subnational regions 68
Figure 3.9. Changes in spatial inequality and structural change 69
Figure 3.10. Contribution of different kinds of services to overall growth of the service sector across countries belonging to different levels of spatial inequality 69
Figure 3.11. Mexico: A fairly even distribution of night light (left panel) is spatially correlated with the relatively even distribution of modern service activities (right panel) 70
Figure 3.12. Viet Nam: A higher spatial concentration of night light (left panel) is related to the localization of manufacturing activities (right panel) 70
Boxes 6
Box 1.1. Gains in per capita income growth from increasing women's labour force participation rate 21
Box 1.2. Evolution of labour productivity growth 23
Box 1.3. Labour market power and real wage developments 24
Box 1.4. The transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles 25
Box 3.1. Measuring productivity to inform policy and social dialogue 64
Box 3.2. The role of modern services and manufacturing in spatial inequality: Mexico versus Viet Nam 70
