Title page 1

Contents 5

Preface 4

Acknowledgements 8

Executive summary 9

1. From recovery to sustained resilience? 13

Tepid growth is testing labour markets 13

Benign headline jobs figures hide structural vulnerabilities 15

Outlook: Uncertainty hinders structural change 27

References 30

2. Employment and social trends by region 32

Africa 32

Labour market trends in Northern Africa 33

Labour market trends in sub-Saharan Africa 33

Formalizing and bolstering remittances as a form of private capital mobilization 35

Americas 36

Labour market trends in Latin America and the Caribbean 37

Labour market trends in Northern America 37

Climate-related risks and the Caribbean tourism industry 39

Arab States 41

Labour market trends in the Arab States 41

The adoption of artificial intelligence and digital technologies and widening gender gaps 43

Asia and the Pacific 45

Labour market trends in Asia and the Pacific 45

Progress across several decent work deficits has stalled 47

Transitions and the implications for job creation and disruption 47

Europe and Central Asia 49

Labour market trends in Europe and Central Asia 49

Slow productivity growth in the European Union is expected to weigh on real wage growth 52

References 53

3. Productive employment and spatial inequalities 59

Productivity has slowed on the back of rising spatial inequalities 59

The nature of structural transformation and productivity 62

Spatial inequalities and structural shifts 66

Positive spillovers 71

References 72

Appendix. Data sources and methodology 75

Tables 7

Table 1.1. Change in per capita GDP from increasing women's labour force participation rates 21

Table 2.1. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, labour force, informal employment and working poverty, regional and subregional, Africa, 2021-26 34

Table 2.2. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, labour force, informal employment and working poverty, regional and subregional, Americas, 2021-26 38

Table 2.3. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, labour force, informal employment and working poverty, regional and subregional, Arab States, 2021-26 42

Table 2.4. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, labour force, informal employment and working poverty, regional and subregional, Asia and the Pacific, 2021-26 46

Table 2.5. Estimates and projections of employment, unemployment, youth unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Europe and Central Asia, 2021-26 50

Figures 6

Figure 1.1. Change in labour force participation rates between 2014 and 2024, by sex and age, world and country income groups 16

Figure 1.2. Change in labour force participation rates between 2014 and 2019 and between 2019 and 2024, by sex and age group, high-income countries 17

Figure 1.3. Global unemployment rates by age and sex, 1991-2026 17

Figure 1.4. Youth unemployment rates, world and country income groups, 1991-2026 18

Figure 1.5. Youth not in employment, education or training (NEET), by sex, world, 1991-2026 19

Figure 1.6. Gender gap in unemployment rate, world and country income groups, 2020-26 19

Figure 1.7. Jobs gap rate, by sex, world 20

Figure 1.8. Employment growth by country income group, 2019-26 22

Figure 1.9. Evolution of real wages and labour productivity, world (index, 2020 = 100) 22

Figure 1.10. Growth of GDP per worker, world and country income groups, 2010-26 23

Figure 1.11. Market power and labour market outcomes 24

Figure 1.12. Global employment by broad sector (percentage of total employment) 25

Figure 1.13. Annual growth of formal and informal employment, world, 2010-15 and 2024 26

Figure 1.14. Share of informal employment, world and country income groups, 2004 and 2024 26

Figure 1.15. Share of working poverty and employment by economic class, world, 1991-2024 27

Figure 1.16. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, world 28

Figure 2.1. Remittances, ODA and FDI, sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-23 35

Figure 2.2. Direct and indirect employment in the tourism industry, share of total employment, Caribbean countries and non-mainland territories, 2019 39

Figure 2.3. Proportion of employment with potential exposure to automating effects of generative AI, by sex and subregion 44

Figure 2.4. Changes in selected labour market indicators, Asia and the Pacific, 2004-24 48

Figure 2.5. Selected indicators relating to labour productivity, EU-27, 2010-23 51

Figure 3.1. The global productivity frontier, 1991-2024 60

Figure 3.2. Industrial policy interventions worldwide 61

Figure 3.3. Productivity growth: Contributions from within-sector growth versus structural transformation 63

Figure 3.4. Labour productivity across the manufacturing and service sectors 63

Figure 3.5. Sectors' performance in productivity and employment growth in Ghana, 2013-22 64

Figure 3.6. Change in spatial inequality and change in manufacturing's share in the workforce 66

Figure 3.7. Change in spatial inequality and change in modern (high-end) services' share in the workforce 67

Figure 3.8. Concentration of sectoral employment across subnational regions 68

Figure 3.9. Changes in spatial inequality and structural change 69

Figure 3.10. Contribution of different kinds of services to overall growth of the service sector across countries belonging to different levels of spatial inequality 69

Figure 3.11. Mexico: A fairly even distribution of night light (left panel) is spatially correlated with the relatively even distribution of modern service activities (right panel) 70

Figure 3.12. Viet Nam: A higher spatial concentration of night light (left panel) is related to the localization of manufacturing activities (right panel) 70

Boxes 6

Box 1.1. Gains in per capita income growth from increasing women's labour force participation rate 21

Box 1.2. Evolution of labour productivity growth 23

Box 1.3. Labour market power and real wage developments 24

Box 1.4. The transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles 25

Box 3.1. Measuring productivity to inform policy and social dialogue 64

Box 3.2. The role of modern services and manufacturing in spatial inequality: Mexico versus Viet Nam 70