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Title page 1
Contents 4
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5
INTRODUCTION 6
RECENT EVOLUTION OF EU TRADE 10
SUPPLY CHAIN TENSIONS FOR EU IMPORTERS 19
SUPPLY CHAIN ADJUSTMENT STRATEGIES OF EU FIRMS 23
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND FIRM CHARACTERISTICS SUPPORTING SUPPLY CHAIN ADJUSTMENTS 31
IMPORT RESILIENCE AS A CORNERSTONE OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE 39
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY MESSAGE 43
REFERENCES 44
APPENDIX: SURVEY QUESTIONS USED IN THE FIGURES 46
Tables 11
Table 1. Trade tensions in 2015-2025 and their impact 11
Figures 10
Figure 1. EU trade flows 10
Figure 2. Extra-EU energy trade flows 10
Figure 3. Global shipping costs 12
Figure 4. Extra-EU and intra-EU trade of goods 12
Figure 5. Trade balance in goods of the European Union with the United States and China 12
Figure 6. EU trade balance in services with the United States and China 12
Figure 7. Change in the EU import portfolio, by trading partner 13
Figure 8. Change in the EU import portfolio, by product class 13
Figure 9. Change in the EU, US and Chinese export portfolios 14
Figure 10. Major trade-related obstacles for EU importers 19
Figure 11. Supply chain tensions for EU importers, by sector 20
Figure 12. Supply chain tensions, by importer status and origin of import partners 20
Figure 13. Supply chain tensions for extra-EU importers, by origin of import partners 20
Figure 14. Origin of essential inputs and high risk of supply disruptions 21
Figure 15. Supply chain tensions for firms importing essential inputs from outside the European Union and China 21
Figure 16. Adjustments to trade tensions 23
Figure 17. Intensity of trade tensions and adjustments 23
Figure 18. Adjusters to trade tensions 24
Figure 19. Non-adjusters to trade tensions 24
Figure 20. Adjustments to trade tensions, by origin of trading partners 24
Figure 21. Adjustments to trade tensions, by input type and high risk of supply disruptions 24
Figure 22. Diversification of imports 25
Figure 23. Extra-EU import substitution 25
Figure 24. Difficulty to find alternative suppliers to substitute essential inputs 26
Figure 25. Importance of factors when choosing a new supplier outside the European Union 26
Figure 26. Difference between firms using unique technology and other firms in choosing a new supplier outside Europe 27
Figure 27. Investment barriers for EU importers 31
Figure 28. Adjustments made by firms according to the number of barriers reported 32
Figure 29. Adjustments to trade tensions, by digital and non-digital firms 32
Figure 30. Adjustments to trade tensions, by innovative and non-innovative firms 32
Figure 31. Adjustments to trade tensions, by firms receiving and not receiving financial support 33
Figure 32. Input costs, selling prices and expectations 34
Figure 33. Expectations for input costs and selling prices, by origin of import partner 34
Figure 34. Cost pass-through to customers, comparing firms reporting major trade tensions to firms not reporting any major trade tension 35
Figure 35. Change in production structure 39
Figure 36. Export performance and expectations 39
Figure 37. Export performance, intra-EU vs. extra-EU 40
Figure 38. Expected export performance, intra-EU vs. extra-EU, by sector 40
Figure 39. Diversification of exports inside and outside the European Union, by export destination 41
Figure 40. Export expectation and supply chain adjustments 41
Figure 41. Adjustments to trade tensions, by export performance category 41
Boxes 4
Box A. STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL DIVERSIFICATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: INSIGHTS FROM THE CRISP FRAMEWORK 15
Box B. DECARBONISING SUPPLY CHAINS - A DESTINATION AT THE END OF A BUMPY ROAD 28
Box C. SUPPLY CHAIN SHOCKS, MANAGERIAL RESPONSES, AND RESILIENCE 36
Box Figures 16
Figure A1. Product Complexity Index and relatedness density of the European Union 16
Figure A2. The role of rule of law in enabling specialisation in complex products 17
Figure B1. Decarbonisation monitoring, by trade status 28
Figure B2. Decarbonisation progress 28
Figure B3. Decarbonisation plans, transition risks and firm size 29
Figure B4. Obstacles to decarbonisation 29
Figure C1. Supply chain strategies and firm resilience post-COVID 36
Figure C2. Supply chain shocks and firms' strategic responses 37
