목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 2
1. Introduction and overview 3
2. Forms of uncertainty and risks 3
2.1. Taxonomy of uncertainty and risks 5
2.2. Measurement of uncertainty 7
3. Assessing uncertainty and the balance of risks around the outlook 11
3.1. Fan charts 11
3.2. Judgment and scenario analysis 11
3.3. Econometric assessments 13
4. Communicating uncertainty and the balance of risks 15
4.1. Narrative approaches 16
4.2. Communicating uncertainty and risks quantitatively 17
5. Conclusion 18
References 21
Appendix 27
Tables 10
Table 1. Overview of Uncertainty Measures 10
Table 2. Tools Used by Central Banks to Communicate Risks and Uncertainties 20
Figures 4
Figure 1. Probabilistic Forecasts in the Survey of Market Expectations 4
Figure 2. Uncertainty Measures over Time 9
Figure 3. How Large Are the Risks from the Alternative Scenarios Presented in the Tealbook? 13
Figure 4. Implications of Stock Market Volatility for Risks to the Dual Mandate Based on an Outlook-at-Risk model 14
