목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 2
1. Introduction and overview 3
2. The inflation surge was global 4
3. The main drivers of inflation were common, but there was some heterogeneity in policy responses and effects 7
3.1. The pandemic generated an unprecedented re-allocation in demand 7
3.2. Fiscal and monetary measures supported aggregate demand 8
3.3. Supply chains came under pressure amid pandemic restrictions and abrupt swings in demand 10
3.4. Russia's invasion of Ukraine added persistence to inflation, especially in Europe 12
3.5. Labor markets tightened as the recovery gained pace 13
4. A simple Phillips curve framework suggests that the 2021-22 surge in inflation was mainly driven by cost-push factors 15
5. Amid rising inflation, central banks acted forcefully 21
5.1. Longer-term inflation expectations remained anchored 24
6. Lessons from the international experience 25
References 27
Appendix 34
Tables 19
Table 1. Slope of the Phillips curve 19
Figures 4
Figure 1. Global headline inflation 4
Figure 2. Inflation across economies 5
Figure 3. Evolution of Consensus forecasts 6
Figure 4. Reported COVID-19 cases and deaths across economies 6
Figure 5. Comparison of goods share of real private consumption during recessions 8
Figure 6. Fiscal stimulus across economies 9
Figure 7. Consumption expenditure, fiscal spending, and inflation 10
Figure 8. World export volumes and Global Supply Chain Pressure Index 11
Figure 9. All goods and services inflation across economies 11
Figure 10. Commodity prices 12
Figure 11. Inflation components across regions 13
Figure 12. Labor market indicators 14
Figure 13. Real wages 15
Figure 14. Historical decomposition of core inflation: Hours gap and other factors 18
Figure 15. Decline in hours gap necessary to keep zero core inflation deviations 21
Figure 16. 10-year yields and policy rates across advanced economies 22
Figure 17. Policy rate response to core inflation in advanced economies 23
Figure 18. 10-year yields and policy rates across economies 24
Figure 19. Consensus long-term inflation expectations 25
Appendix Tables 34
Table A.1. Average inflation misses of 1-year-ahead forecasts 34
Table A.2. Estimation results with hours gap 35
Appendix Figures 34
Figure A.1. Stringency and mobility indexes 34
Figure A.2. Historical decomposition of core inflation: IMF output gap and other factors 36
Figure A.3. Historical decomposition of core inflation: unemployment gap and other factors 37
Figure A.4. Historical decomposition of core inflation: vacancies-to-unemployment gap and other factors 38
