Climate and social sustainability in fragility, conflict, and violence contexts

Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Literature review: Unpacking the links across climate change, FCV and social sustainability: What do we know? 5

3. Methods, data sources and indicators 9

4. Results: FCV and climate impacts 14

5. Results: Social sustainability and FCV 17

6. Results: Social sustainability and climate impacts 20

7. Conclusions 22

References 24

Annex A: FCV Categories (2019-2024) 32

Annex B: Results with and without Controls 35

Annex C: Results with Climate Impacts Standardized by 100k Population, 2019-2024 38

Annex D. Correlations between FCV context, climate impacts, and social sustainability without population-adjustments 39

Annex E: Results with an Alternative Measure of Resilience 43

Tables 11

Table 1. Social sustainability core indicators, per component 11

Table 2. Summary of measures and data sources for climate impacts 13

Figures 16

Figure 1/Figure 11. Differences in climate impacts by FCV and non-FCV settings, 2019-2024 16

Figure 2/Figure 22. Differences in climate impacts by FCV setting, 2019-2024 17

Figure 3/Figure 33. Differences in social sustainability by FCV and non-FCV settings, 2019-2024 19

Figure 4/Figure 44. Differences in social sustainability by FCV context, 2019-2024 20

Figure 5/Figure 55. Difference in climate impacts by high versus low social sustainability, 2019-2024 22

Annex Tables 34

Table A.1. countries and territories classified as settings of national conflict, subnational conflict, violence, and fragility 34

Table B.1. Unconditional regressions of FCV status on drought's impacts, 2019-2024 35

Table B.2. Unconditional regressions of FCV status on floods' impacts, 2019-2024 36

Table B.3. Conditional regressions of FCV status on drought's impacts, 2019-2024 36

Table B.4. Conditional regressions of FCV status on drought's impacts, 2019-2024 37

Table C.1. Unconditional regressions of FCV status on droughts' impacts, 2019-2024 38

Table C.2. Unconditional regressions of FCV status on floods' impacts, 2019-2024 38

Table E.1. Regressions of FCV on Resilience, 2022 43

Table E.2. Unconditional regressions of resilience on drought's impacts, 2019-2024 44

Table E.3. Unconditional regressions of resilience on floods' impacts, 2019-2024 44

Annex Figures 39

Figure D1/Figure 6D1. Differences in total climate impacts by FCV and non-FCV settings, 2019-2024 39

Figure D2/Figure 7D2. Differences in total climate impacts by FCV setting, 2019-2024 40

Figure D3/Figure 8D3. Differences in social sustainability by FCV context, 2019-2024 41

Figure D4/Figure 9D4. Difference in total climate impacts by high versus low social sustainability, 2019-2024 42