목차
List of abbreviations and acronyms 1
Executive summary 2
I. Introduction and overview 3
Russia’s current space capabilities: Charting Moscow’s ability to conduct nuclear, debris-generating, and counter-commercial attacks 3
Russia’s nuclear attack capabilities 5
Russia’s debris-generating ASAT capabilities 8
Russia’s counter-commercial capabilities 8
II. Russian vs. Western views of deterrence: What it means for space 11
Western views of deterrence, compellence, and dissuasion 11
Russian views of strategic deterrence, escalation to de-escalate, and unacceptable losses 13
Going nuclear in space 15
Four applicable lessons for space from differing Russian and western deterrence approaches 16
1) Russian perceptions of Russia’s vulnerability and increasing risk tolerance post-2022 heighten the risk of escalation in space 16
2) Asymmetries in US vulnerabilities in space compared to Russia 17
3) Escalate to de-escalate: Inflicting unacceptable damage to coerce the United States 18
4) Russian culture of suffering and willingness to accept self-damage in space escalation 18
III. Existing and planned US methods to address Russian counterspace capabilities 19
Categorizing existing and planned US methods 19
Assurance and reassurance methods 20
US general public 20
Allies and partners 21
Commercial space sector 23
Russian political and military leadership 24
Chinese political leadership 25
Deterrence by denial of benefit 26
Mission assurance through proliferation, dispersal, and resilient architectures 26
Deterrence through cost-imposition methods 28
Military threats 28
Diplomatic costs 29
Economic and financial costs 30
Summary of methods 31
IV. Analytical framework and methodology 32
Audiences 32
Seven joint functions of the US military 32
1. Nuclear detonation in low-earth orbit 36
Assessment 36
Synthesis and analysis 40
2. Debris-generating ASATS 43
Assessment 43
Synthesis and analysis 47
3. Counter-commercial attacks 49
Assessment 49
Synthesis and analysis 54
V. Key observations and recommendations 56
Key observations 56
Policy and acquisition recommendations 57
Conclusion 58
About the authors 59
VI. Appendices 60
Appendix A: Russia’s approach to deterrence and coercion 60
Appendix B: Likely Chinese reactions to Russian counterspace activities 63
Appendix C: Nuclear events in space and considerations for the commercial space enterprise 71
Appendix D: History and context for a nuclear detonation in low-earth orbit 75
Appendix E: History and context for debris-generating ASAT attacks 77
Appendix F: History and context for counter-commercial attacks against space systems 79
Appendix G: China and India considerations 81
