Title page 1

Contents 3

SUMMARY 5

1. PRESIDENT TRUMP'S SECOND TERM: A BREAK WITH THE PAST 7

2. THE UNITED STATES AS PROPHET? 10

CLIMATE POLICIES IN THE EU 10

CLIMATE POLICY IN MAJOR EMERGING ECONOMIES 10

FINANCE AND AID 11

3. THE UNITED STATES AS SPOILER? 12

US PRESSURE ON MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS 12

OBSTRUCTING CLIMATE COOPERATION AND NEGOTIATIONS 13

FOSSIL FUEL DIPLOMACY AND TRADE STRATEGY 14

THE FUTURE OF THE US AS A 'SPOILER' 14

4. THE UNITED STATES AS 'FREE RIDER'? 16

5. HOW TO RESPOND? 17

RECOMMENDATION 1: STAY THE COURSE 17

RECOMMENDATION 2: BUILD NEW COALITIONS 19

RECOMMENDATION 3: WORK WITH AND AROUND CHINA 19

RECOMMENDATION 4: COOPERATE WHERE POSSIBLE 20

CONCLUSION 21

REFERENCES 22

Boxes 8

BOX 1. A BRIEF HISTORY OF US INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY 8