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Electricity 2026: Analysis and forecast to 2030

(세계전력시장 전망 2026: 2030년까지의 분석과 전망)

□ 전력 수요의 ‘전기화 시대(Age of Electricity)’가 본격화되면서 2026~2030년 세계 전력수요는 연평균 약 3.6% 증가할 것으로 전망된다.

ㅇ 산업 전기화, 전기차 확산, 냉방 수요 증가, 데이터센터 확대가 주요 요인으로 지목되며, 선진국에서도 전력 수요가 다시 증가하는 추세이다.

ㅇ 2030년에는 재생에너지와 원자력이 세계 전력 생산의 약 절반을 차지할 것으로 예상되며, 이에 따라 전력 부문의 탄소 배출은 대체로 정체될 것으로 전망된다.

ㅇ 다만 송전망 병목과 계통 유연성 부족, 2500GW 이상의 전력망 연결 대기 프로젝트가 주요 제약 요인으로 지적되며, 전력망 투자 확대와 배터리·수요반응 확대, 규제 개혁의 필요성이 강조된다.

목차

Executive Summary 8


Demand 13

 The Age of Electricity has arrived, underpinned by strong demand growth 13

 Demand in advanced economies rebounds after a long period of stagnation 13

 Electricity consumption set to rise strongly across all sectors 15

 Electricity demand breaks with history, outpacing global GDP growth16

 US and EU electricity demand forecast to post robust growth 18

 Per capita electricity consumption will reach new record highs 19

 China’s electricity demand on a solid growth path 21

 Peak load and demand rise across India 27


Supply 36

 Renewables and nuclear keep growing and setting records 36

 Share of renewables and nuclear in global generation to reach 50% by 2030 36

 Growth in renewables, natural gas and nuclear to meet additional demand 37

 Uncharacteristic trends in coal-fired generation during 2025 39

 Strong solar PV growth remains a common trend across the regions 41


Grids 46

 Grids are emerging as a bottleneck for connecting supply, demand and storage 46

 Grid technologies and regulatory reforms unlock grid capacity 46

 Record-high connection queues and rising curtailment as grids become congested 49

 More efficient use of grids via targeted regulatory and policy frameworks 51

 Grid-enhancing technology unlocks capacity 64

 Synchronisation of Baltic electricity system marked a major milestone 69


Flexibility 72

 Evolving generation and demand patterns reshape power system needs 72

 Demand response offers breakthrough benefits, yet potential is untapped 72

 Solar PV capture rates decline, but storage can boost system value 81

 Utility-scale batteries are strengthening system flexibility 84

 Managing high solar and wind output during low demand 97


Emissions 105

 Electricity sector emissions are increasingly decoupling from demand growth 105

 CO2 emissions from electricity generation are forecast to plateau through 2030 105

 Global CO2 intensity decline accelerates as low-carbon energy expands 106


Prices 109

 Affordability and competitiveness take centre stage 109

 Wholesale electricity prices continue to differ across regions 109

 Negative wholesale pricing trends diverged across markets in 2025 112

 Price gaps for energy-intensive industries persist 113

 Residential electricity prices remain elevated 117


Reliability 123

 Largescale outages amid system instability and weather impacts 123

 Voltage management increasingly important for power system stability 123

 Major power supply disruptions triggered by equipment failures 124

 Extreme weather events continued to cause major power outages 125


Regional Focus 128

 Asia Pacific 129

  Electricity demand to increase strongly after mild weather tempered growth 129

 Americas 153

  Solar PV and natural gas-fired generation see strong growth through 2030 153

 Europe 168

  Power demand is increasingly met by renewables while coal use falls rapidly 168

 Eurasia 192

  Russian electricity demand contracted, while regional growth stable in 2025 192

 Middle East 195

  Gas-fired generation rises rapidly while renewables post sharp gains 195

 Africa 204

  Growth supported by targeted efforts to expand electricity access 204


Annexes 216

 Summary tables 216

 Regional and country groupings 221

 Abbreviations and acronyms 223

 Units of measure 223

해시태그

#전력수요 # 전력공급 # 전력소비 # 데이터센터 # 발전원

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Electricity 2026: Analysis and forecast to 2030

(세계전력시장 전망 2026: 2030년까지의 분석과 전망)

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