Acknowledgments iii

Executive Summary iv

One Big Beautiful Bill? A preliminary assessment 1

I. Introduction 1

II. How we got here: From TCJA to OBBBA 3

III. What the OBBBA does: Major tax and spending changes 5

IV. What the OBBBA costs: Revenue and fiscal effects 10

V. How the OBBBA affects the economy: Growth implications 17

VI. Who gains and who loses? Distributional effects of the OBBBA 20

VII. Impacts across key policy areas 28

VIII. Related policies and administrative actions 36

IX. Concluding remarks 40

Appendix Table 1 42

Notes 45

References 47