Title page 1

Contents 4

Abstract 3

Acknowledgements 3

1. Introduction 5

2. EU poverty policy and measurement 6

2.1. Current measures for monitoring poverty in the EU 6

2.2. Measuring poverty in a changing policy context 8

3. Capturing poverty dynamics 10

3.1. Poverty duration and its policy relevance 10

3.2. Expanding the knowledge on EU poverty dynamics 12

4. Data and methodology 13

4.1. Poverty trajectories 15

4.2. Dynamic poverty 16

4.2.1. Dynamic risk of poverty 16

4.2.2. Dynamic poverty gap 18

5. Descriptive results 19

5.1. Poverty trajectories 19

5.1.1. Poverty trajectories across countries and time 19

5.1.2. Poverty trajectories by individual and household characteristics 23

5.1.3. Poverty trajectories by labour market characteristics 28

5.2. Dynamic risk of poverty 30

5.3. Poverty gap measures 31

5.4. Cross-Sectional versus Dynamic Poverty 33

5.5. The dynamic of entering and exiting poverty 36

6. The role of social protection 38

7. Multivariate analysis 42

8. Conclusions 44

References 46

Annexes 49

Table 1. Structure of EU-SILC longitudinal data and the analysis period 14

Table 2. Poverty statuses and poverty trajectories over a 4-year period 16

Table 3. Poverty trajectories and sequences, 2014-2022, EU-25 (excl. LU, DE) 20

Table 4. Determinants of Poverty trajectories, 2019-2022 (multinomial logistic regression model) 43

Figure 1. Poverty trajectories (share of total population) in MS, 2019-2022 21

Figure 2. Poverty trajectories (share of total poor population) in MS, 2019-2022 21

Figure 3. Changes in poverty trajectories (share of total population) by period (2011-2014, 2015-2018, 2019-2022) in EU-25 22

Figure 4. Changes in chronic poverty rate by MS, 2011-2014 vs 2019-2022 22

Figure 5. Poverty trajectories by age (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 23

Figure 6. Poverty trajectories by gender (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 24

Figure 7. Poverty trajectories by education (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 24

Figure 8. Poverty trajectories by country of birth (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 25

Figure 9. Poverty trajectories by place of living (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 26

Figure 10. Poverty trajectories by home ownership status (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 26

Figure 11. Poverty trajectories by health status (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 27

Figure 12. Poverty trajectories by chronic illness status (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 28

Figure 13. Poverty trajectories by the predominant labour market status (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 29

Figure 14. Poverty trajectories by household work intensity (share of total population), EU-25, 2019-2022 29

Figure 15. The dynamic risk of poverty (DROP) (share of total population), MS and in EU-25, 2014-2022 30

Figure 16. Average dynamic poverty gap for the entire population, EU-25, 2014-2022 32

Figure 17. Changes in average dynamic poverty gap, EU-25, 2014-2022 33

Figure 18. AROP (2022) vs. at-risk-of-poverty at least once in the last four years, Member States, 2019-2022 34

Figure 19a. AROP (2014) vs. DROP (2011-2014) for 2 and 4 years by MS 35

Figure 19b. AROP (2018) vs. DROP (2015-2018) for 2 and 4 years by MS 35

Figure 19c. AROP (2022) vs. DROP (2019-2022) for 2 and 4 years by MS 36

Figure 20. Entry and Exit rates by MS, 2015-2023 37

Figure 21. Four-year churn rates by MS, EU-SILC waves, 2015 and 2023 37

Figure 22. The dynamic risk of poverty before and after social transfers, EU-25, 2014-2022 39

Figure 23a. The dynamic risk of poverty before and after social transfers for at least 2 out of 4 years in poverty in Member States, 2014-2022 40

Figure 23b. The dynamic risk of poverty before and after social transfers for at least 3 out of 4 years in poverty in Member States, 2014-2022 40

Figure 23c. The dynamic risk of poverty before and after social transfers for 4 out of 4 years in poverty in Member States, 2014-2022 41

Figure 24. The impact of social transfers on poverty reduction for AROP (2022) and DROP (2019-2022) 42

Figure A1. Matrix of incomes 49

Figure A2. Poverty spells and DROP 49

Figure A3. Normalised poverty gaps 49