Contents

Foreword 3

Courtney Stewart, Deputy Director, Defence Strategy Program

Part One: Strategy and deterrence

The Australia-US Alliance: the art of dealing with a great power 4

Mike Hughes and Justin Bassi

What Trump’s National Security Strategy means for Australia 5

Courtney Stewart

The National Defence Strategy needs to give Australians clarity 7

Courtney Stewart

With rigour and regularity, Australia’s strategy process is just right 8

Colin Karotam

How Australia’s defence strategy converges with US’s balance of power 9

Courtney Stewart

Multinational combined joint force offers credible collective deterrence 11

Courtney Stewart

Australia and Japan take a big step towards collective deterrence 12

Courtney Stewart

Part Two: Regional security

Australia in a disordered world 14

Mike Hughes

A coordinated trans-Eurasian threat: the deepening Sino-Russian strategic partnership 16

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Mike Hughes

Despite a supposedly defensive policy, China’s military budget rises fast 17

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan

Timor-Leste and its partners need to step up as Chinese interest in Timorese waters increases 18

Eric Frécon and Christine Cabasset

Australia and Papua New Guinea: a relationship worth investing in 19

Mike Hughes

Australia should firm up ties with Kiribati before China does 20

Eric Frécon

Demonstrating commitment and reducing risk: a British SSN heads to Australia 21

Richard Gray

The EU has much to offer. Australia should deepen partnership with it 22

Eric Frécon and Fitriani

Something else for Australia to consider: Russian nuclear subs in the Pacific 24

Carl Janz

Part Three: Taiwan

Taiwan matters. Australia needs to understand why 25

Joe Keary, Nathan Attrill, Marc Ablong and Mark HarrisonThe Taiwan scenarios 1: Subversion, quarantine, blockade, invasion 26

Joe Keary and Nathan Attrill

The Taiwan scenarios 2: Warning signs 27

Joe Keary and Nathan Attrill

The Taiwan scenarios 3: Day zero 28

Joe Keary and Nathan Attrill

The Taiwan scenarios 4: The catastrophe 30

Joe Keary and Nathan Attrill

Pressure points: managing risk and escalation in the Taiwan Strait 31

Joe Keary

Part Four: Capabilities

Abandoning AUKUS Pillar One would gravely damage the US alliance 33

Malcolm Davis

Hedging our bets: a Japanese option for managing risk in the AUKUS Optimal Pathway 34

Richard Gray and Mike Hughes

More risk and cost: de-scoped Collins LOTE strengthens case for looking to Japan 35

Richard Gray

ADF autonomous warfare: go big, go fast 36

Malcolm Davis

How Australia could build a northern wall of drones 38

Malcolm Davis

Military drone racing is becoming a training ground 39

Oscar Warren

Australia chooses big, heavily armed Japanese frigates 40

Malcolm Davis

Australia steps up reliance on uncrewed surface vessels 41

Malcolm Davis

Part Five: Defence spending

Cost of Defence’s roadmap for spending 3 percent of GDP on defence 43

Marc Ablong

When the world changes, so must our defence: Australian spending should exceed 2 percent 46

Marc Ablong and Justin Bassi

2026 cost of Defence: the budget is a promise to the future paid for by the present 47

Marc Ablong, Mike Hughes, Linus Cohen

How to count Australian defence spending as (almost) 2.8 percent of GDP 48

Linus Cohen

The biggest window into Australian defence acquisition has closed 50

Linus Cohen

Australian GMLRS: assembled in Australia, but made in America (so far) 51

Madi Jones

Opportunities and risks in Australia’s defence acquisition shake-up 52

Malcolm Davis

About the authors 54