Contents

Executive Summary  7

Chapter 1. Introduction: The Deterrence by Resilience Framework  13

Chapter 2. Mapping the Bioconvergence Threat  17

A. The Promise and Peril of Bioconvergence  17

B. Bioconvergence Risk  21

C. Trends in Biological AI Systems  24

D. Evaluating Risks from Biological AI Systems  25

E. Analogizing Bioconvergence Risks  34

Chapter 3. Prevention  37

A. Bio Risks of General Purpose AI Models: Current State and Critical Gaps  37

Findings and Recommendations  53

B. Biological Data Governance  56

Findings and Recommendations  59

C. Governance of Biological AI Tools  60

Findings and Recommendations  63

D. Nucleic Acid Synthesis Screening and Laboratory Regulation  64

Findings and Recommendations  68

Chapter 4. Detection  70

A. Diagnosing Failures in the Existing Biological Monitoring Systems: The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Stress Test  71

B. Building Bio-Monitoring Systems for Continuous Readiness  75

C. Building the System: Infrastructure and Integration  77

D. Financing and Governing a Biological Monitoring System  81

E. Conclusion  83

Findings and Recommendations  83

Chapter 5. Attribution  90

A. Attribution as Deterrence  90

B. Current Challenges for Attribution  91

C. Capability Inventory: Where the United States Stands Today  95

D. The US Policy Context  97

E. Conclusion  98

Findings and Recommendations  98

Chapter 6. Readiness and Response  101

A. Readiness  101

Findings and Recommendations  111

B. Response  113

Findings and Recommendations  130

Chapter 7. Resilience  133

A. The Interdependent Relationship Between Response and Resilience  133

B. Building Bioresilience Through AI, Functional Data, and Response Infrastructure  135

C. Industrial Resilience: Strengthening the Private Sector and Supply Chain  140

D. Expanding Global Resilience  147

Findings and Recommendations  152

Conclusion: A Call to Action  157