Abstract 3

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits 4

Overview 5

Demand 9

  Slight growth of global coal demand in 2025 masked diverging regional trends 9

  Unexpected shocks push global demand higher in 2026 10

  Global coal demand could decline in 2027 if Middle East tensions ease 12

Production 15

  Global coal production stayed close to record levels in 2025, led by China and India 15

  Output is expected to dip in 2026 amid abundant inventories 16

  Coal output will rebound slightly in 2027, after the fall in 2026 17

Trade 19

  After a record 2024, global coal trade declined in 2025 as China reduced their imports 19

  Trade forecasts revised up for 2026 as a result of the Middle East crisis 20

  Global coal trade is set to resume its decline in 2027 driven by thermal coal Despite the resilience of me 23

Prices 24

  Coal prices have recovered from marginal-cost levels, but remain well below 2022 highs 24

  International thermal coal prices recovered in the first half of 2026 after weakening through 2024 and 2025 25

  Coal prices rose moderately after the conflict in the Middle East broke out 28

  Russian coal discounts increased with higher prices 29

  Coal forward prices are more stable than oil and gas 30