Preface i

Executive summary ii

Figures vi

1. Introduction 1

2. Methodology 4

3. The concentration of leading AI capabilities 6

  3.1. The concentration of frontier AI development 6

  3.2. Governance implications of concentrated development 9

4. What can states govern via public procurement? 17

  4.1. Procurement and regulation as distinct governance levers 17

  4.2. Can public procurement practically affect AI governance? 20

  4.3. A framework for frontier AI procurement guarantees 24

5. Policy recommendation: exploring shared procurement standards across AI middle powers 32

  5.1. The case for coordination 32

  5.2. The benefitsand limits ofshared procurement standards 33

  5.3. Policy implications for AI middle powers 36

6. Conclusion and areas for future research 39

Glossary 40

References 42