INTRODUCTION 4

RANGE OF AGI SCENARIOS 4

KEY VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS IN AGI SCENARIOS 5

  Definitions of AGI 5

  Timeline to AGI 6

  Strategic Warning and Perceptions of AGI 7

  AGI’s Arrival as a Discrete Threshold 7

  Takeoff 10

  Number of Actors 11

  First-Mover Advantage 12

  AI’s Impact on the World 14

  Alignment 15

  Threat Model 16

  Compute 16

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 17