Preface i

Executive summary ii

Abbreviations ix

1. Introduction 1

  1.1. Background 1

  1.2. Research objectives 1

  1.3. Methodology 2

  1.4. Caveats and limitations 3

  1.5. Structure of this report 3

2. What are novel effector systems? 5

  2.1. Scope and definitions 5

  2.2. Technological development trajectories of novel effectors 9

  2.3. Key national developments in novel effectors 15

3. Potential strategic implications of novel effectors 17

  3.1. Definition of strategic stability 17

  3.2. Cross-cutting implications 17

  3.3. Technology-specific strategic implications 18

  3.4. Variables shaping strategic implications 21

  3.5. Implications for strategic stability of novel effectors 23

4. Competitive opportunities for the UK in novel effector technologies 27

  4.1. Factors of production in the UK 27

5. Governance of novel effectors 35

  5.1. Governance options 35

  5.2. Applicability of IHL 41

  5.3. Current governance landscape for novel effectors 42

  5.4. Challenges 48

  5.5. Priority areas for governance to address strategic risks 49

6. Conclusions and recommendations 51

  6.1. Key findings 51

  6.2. Options for the UK government 52

  6.3. Recommendations 52

References 56