Preface iii

Executive Summary iv

Abbreviations x

1. Introduction 1

  1.1. Context and scope 1

  1.2. Research scope, approach and methodology 4

2. Understanding Adversarial AI 5

  2.1. What is adversarial AI? 5

  2.2. Threat vectors 7

  2.3. Attack surface 11

3. Manifestations of Adversarial AI 13

  3.1. Autonomous weapon systems 14

  3.2. Military Decision Support Systems 16

  3.3. Military back-end functions 18

  3.4. Nuclear command, control, and communications 20

  3.5. Critical national infrastructure 22

  3.6. Other impacts of adversarial AI on strategic competition 23

4. Implications for Strategic Stability 27

  4.1. Impact pathways for strategic stability 27

  4.2. Factors shaping impact of adversarial AI 31

5. Governance Mechanisms and Responses 34

  5.1. Existing governance mechanisms 35

  5.2. Gaps 41

  5.3. Challenges for establishing governance around adversarial AI 42

6. Conclusion 45

  6.1. Recommendations 46

  6.2. Areas for further research 48

References 50

Annex A. Methodology 65

  A.1. Literature review 65

  A.2. Expert workshop 65

  A.3. Key informant interviews 68

  A.4. Governance mechanisms and gap analysis 69

Annex B. Analysis of Governance Mechanisms 70