Foreword xiii

Acknowledgments xv

About the Authors xvii

Main Messages xix

Overview xxv

Abbreviations xli

Introduction: Purpose and Structure of the Report 1

Reference 5

1 Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor: Strategic Promise and Trade Transformation 7

  Introduction 8

  Structural Reforms in TCTC Host Countries 10

  Trade Dynamics Shaping the TCTC 13

  Economic Aspirations and Development Goals of TCTC Host Countries 20

  Trade Outlook for the TCTC Economies 22

  Conclusions 24

  Note 25

  References 25

2 Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Capacity Constraints and Operating Environment 27

  Introduction 28

  Physical and Operational Bottlenecks 29

  Logistics Nodes and Network Integration 36

  Environmental and Climate Conditions 37

  Institutional and Policy Environment 37

  Notes 37

  References 38

3 Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Freight and Economic Potential 39

  Introduction 40

  Freight Markets and Segmentation along the TCTC 41

  Freight Flows through the Gateways of the TCTC 43

  Strategic Role of Different TCTC Gateways 48

  Elasticity of Freight Flows through the TCTC 53

  Wider Economic Impacts: GDP, Jobs, and Trade 56

  Conclusions 60

  Notes 61

4 Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Performance: Drivers, Volumes, and Investment Viability Implications 63

  Introduction 64

  Current Performance of the TCTC 66

  The TCTC’s Competitiveness Reach as a Eurasian Landbridge 74

  Expected Landbridge Volumes 77

  TCTC Branch- and Subbranch-Level Analysis for the Eurasian Landbridge 82

  Containerized Infrastructure Adequacy and Volume Projections 87

  In-Principle Viability of Investments in TCTC Infrastructure 89

  Notes 96

  Reference 97

5 From Transport Corridor to Economic Corridor: Broader Logistics Investments in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor 99

  Introduction 100

  The Trans-Caspian Transit Corridor as an Economic Corridor 100

  Mapping Investment Opportunities in the TCTC by Country and Asset Category 105

  Notes 109

  References 109

6 Institutional and Regulatory Arrangements Shaping the Performance of Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Transport State-Owned Enterprises 111

  Introduction 112

  SOEs Across TCTC Transport Modes: State Participation in Ports and Shipping 115

  Global Experience on Institutional Models for Railways 119

  Comparative Assessment of TCTC Railway SOEs 124

  Conclusions 129

  Notes 131

  References 131

7 Transforming the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor through Improved Trade Facilitation, Digitalization, and Integrated Operations: Toward a Single Transport, Transit, and Trade (T3) Document 133

  Introduction 134

  Eurasian Containerized Landbridge 136

  The (Long) Documentation Trail Along the TCTC’s Eurasian Landbridge 139

  Negotiable Documents 145

  Digitalization 146

  Operational Efficiency 156

  Implications for the TCTC 157

  Notes 161

  References 161

8 Bridging the Collaboration Gap in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor 163

  Introduction 164

  Collaboration Achievements and Remaining Gaps in the TCTC 165

  TCTC Assessment and Response Structure 169

  Conclusions 171

  Notes 172

  References 172

Appendix A: Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Network Exposure to Natural Hazards in Central Asia and the South Caucasus 173

Appendix B: Trade and Transport Model and Modeling Scenarios 187

Appendix C: Wider Economic Benefits Modeling Framework 197

Appendix D: Enabling Investments in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor through 2040 201

Appendix E: Examples of International Collaboration Entities Active in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor 211