Prologue 4

Executive Summary 5

1. Introduction 7

  1.1 Background and analytical framework 8

  1.2 Methodology 11

2. Mapping Chinese Presence in the CPKNL 12

  2.1 The Chinese diaspora 12

  2.2 Official Chinese policy towards the LAC 15

  2.3 Consulate and Chinese political influence 17

  2.4 Chinese (state-owned) enterprises 18

  2.5 A Whole-of-Society Approach? 20

3. Geopolitical resilience and economic security of the CPKNL 22

  3.1 High degree of import dependency 23

  3.2 Insufficient renewable energy infrastructure 24

  3.3 Digital infrastructure dependencies and resilience gaps 26

  3.4 Regulatory divergence and strategic safeguards 28

  3.5 Vulnerabilities in security cooperation 29

  3.6 Cross-border financial vulnerabilities 32

4. Policy options 35

  4.1 Reduce concentrated external dependencies 35

  4.2 Expand renewable energy production to reduce external dependency 36

  4.3 Modernize digital infrastructure 37

  4.4 Strengthen coordination and safeguards in strategic sectors 38

  4.5 Improve resilience in security cooperation 39

  4.6 Counter illicit cross-border financial flows 40

5. Conclusion 42

  5.1 Presence, but limited Chinese influence 42

  5.2 Need to boost resilience, reduce dependencies 42

  5.3 Reconsider security arrangements 43