Acknowledgments xiii

Executive Summary xvii

Abbreviations xxi

Chapter 1 Macroeconomic Outlook 1

  The recent conflict is reversing economic fortunes across MENAAP 2

  Outlook, risks, and policy priorities 28

  Annex 1A Macro Poverty Outlook forecasts 42

Chapter 2 AI’s Uneven Promise 45

  Introduction 46

  A region divided by strategy and adoption capacity 50

  A critically binding constraint: Weak innovation ecosystems and the lack of private sector dynamism 54

  What AI means for workers in MENAAP 57

  From augmentation potential to productivity gains: Three structural gaps 68

  From divide to opportunity 94

  Annex 2A Evidence from case studies 105

References 119