목차
Title page
Contents
Abstract / Resume 5
Key policy messages 6
1. Introduction 7
A vision of growth 7
2. Growth determinants 9
Population ageing will reduce the share of the working-age population in most countries 11
Net migration will only modestly lower old-age dependency ratios 12
Structural reforms will be needed to sustain labour force participation 13
Unemployment will return to pre-crisis levels 16
Human capital will continue to improve 16
Capital intensity is assumed to gradually stabilise 17
Efficiency improvements will be the main driver of growth 18
Global growth will be sustained by emerging countries, though at a declining rate 19
The relative size of economies will change dramatically over the next half century 20
GDP per capita gaps will shrink but significant cross-country differences will persist 21
3. Global saving and current account imbalances 22
The global saving rate will decline over the long-run and be increasingly driven by China and India 22
Global current account imbalances will build up 24
4. Bold structural and macro policies can enhance growth and reduce imbalances 25
Product market liberalisation would speed up convergence 25
Labour market reforms can boost long-run GDP 26
Ambitious fiscal consolidation and structural reforms can reduce imbalances and boost growth 26
Bibliography 28
Figure 1. Scope for catch-up in productivity and human capital in many countries 10
Figure 2. Populations will age in most countries 11
Figure 3. Foreign-born population lowers the old-age dependency ratio by around 2 percentage points on average, 2010 13
Figure 4. Labour force participation is projected to decline at unchanged policies 14
Figure 5. Labour force participation is projected to change relatively little in the baseline scenario 15
Figure 6. Educational attainment will increase over time 17
Figure 7. Capital intensity is expected to broadly stabilise 18
Figure 8. Multi-factor productivity tends to converge across countries over 2011-2060 19
Figure 9. Convergence in GDP across countries is mainly driven by education and productivity improvements 20
Figure 10. There will be major changes in the composition of global GDP 21
Figure 11. Despite substantial gains by emerging countries, differences in GDP per capita still remain in 2060 22
Figure 12. Saving rates are projected to decline 23
Figure 13. Emerging countries will account for a larger share in global saving 24
Figure 14. Global imbalances are projected to rise over the next two decades 25
Figure 15. More ambitious structural reforms and fiscal consolidation raise GDP 27
Figure 16. More ambitious policies can reduce global imbalances 27
Boxes
Box 1. Long-term macro economic projections 8
Annex Tables
Table A.1. Average growth rate in trend GDP and trend GDP per capita in USD 2005 PPPs 29
해시태그
관련자료
AI 100자 요약·번역서비스
인공지능이 자동으로 요약·번역한 내용입니다.
Looking to 2060 : long-term global growth prospects
(2060년 전망 : 장기적인 글로벌 성장 전망)