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About This Report iii
Summary v
Figures viii
Factors Shaping the Future of China’s Military 1
Demographics in Detail 1
Factors Behind China’s Economic Growth and Likely Future Economic Growth Path 10
The PLA’s Plans and the Likelihood of Fruition 11
Final Thoughts 14
References 16
Figure 1. China’s Fertility Rate, 1960–2020 2
Figure 2. Fertility Patterns Across China, Other Countries in Asia, and the World, 1960–2020 3
Figure 3. China’s Demographic Transition, 1800–2100 5
Figure 4. Current and Projected Changes in China’s Population, by Age Group, 1990–2030 6
Figure 5. Current and Projected Changes in the United States’ Population, by Age Group, 1990–2030 7
Figure 6. Percentage of Young Adults with Only Primary Education or Less, by Country and over Time 9