목차
List of Tables and Figures III
Acknowledgements IV
About the Author IV
List of Abbreviations V
Executive Summary VI
Introduction 1
1. Russia’s Strategy Toward the South Caucasus 2
1.1. Origin of “Sphere of Influence” Policies 2
1.2. Presidential Directorates Engaging the South Caucasus 3
1.3. Bogus Mediation and Military Deployment 5
1.4. Non-Military Coercive Levers – Complex Active Measures 5
1.5. Authoritarian Illiberal Alignment 6
1.6. Frameworks for Evaluation 7
2. Bogus Mediation as Geopolitical Strategy 8
2.1. Conflicts in Abkhazia and “South Ossetia” 8
2.2. 2008 August War against Georgia 9
2.3. First Nagorno-Karabakh War 10
2.4. From Second Nagorno-Karabakh War to Peace Talks 11
3. Georgia – Democratic Backsliding 12
3.1. State Captured by Bidzina Ivanishvili 12
3.2. Opaque Ties to Russian Intelligence and Oligarchs 13
3.3. “Traditional Values” and Soviet Nostalgia 14
3.4. Increasing Trade and Energy Dependency 17
3.5. Creeping Annexation or “Reintegration”? 18
4. Armenia – After the Defeat on the Battlefield 20
4.1. Country Embraced by Russia 20
4.2. Economic and Energy Dependence 21
4.3. Intelligence Agency Reforms – Step toward Sovereignty 22
4.4. New Defence Partnerships and Continued Russian Military Presence 24
4.5. Culture, Media, and Church – Russia’s Declining Reputation 25
5. Azerbaijan – Overture toward Moscow? 26
5.1. From Balancing Act to Authoritarian Alignment with Russia 26
5.2. Navigating between the EU Market and Russian Gas 27
5.3. Azerbaijani Diaspora and Moscow-Baku Unofficial Connections 28
5.4. Moscow-Baku Intelligence Cooperation in “Information Security” 29
5.5. Re-emergence of Russian Soft Power? 30
6. Transnational Aspects 31
6.1. Russian’s Interests in Regional Connectivity and Framework 31
6.1.1. International North-South Transport Corridor 31
6.1.2. Middle Corridor 32
6.1.3. “Zangezur Corridor” Plan and “Crossroads of Peace” Initiative 32
6.1.4. 3+3 Format 33
6.2. Cyber Security 34
6.3. New Waves of Russian Immigrants 34
Conclusion 35
List of References 40
