Title page

Contents

Executive Summary 2

Introduction 5

What Is Space Launch? 5

Motivation 6

Government Requirements 6

National Security 6

Economic Value 8

History and Legislation 9

Industry and Technology Trends 12

Launch Industry Development 12

Modern Launch Industry Dynamics 18

Challenges and Opportunities 27

Challenge 1: Market Competitiveness 27

Challenge 2: China's Fast Followers 27

Opportunity 1: Strategic Support and Strategic Niches 28

Opportunity 2: Current Advantage into Future Advantage 28

Opportunity 3: In-Space Mobility 29

Recommendations 30

Conclusion 33

Authors 34

Acknowledgments 34

Disclaimer 34

Appendix: Methodology Details 35

Pitchbook Data, Inc. 35

Gunter's Space Page 36

Endnotes 38

Table 1. Selected NASA Authorization and Appropriations Acts 10

Table 2. Selected U.S.-Based Company Launch Failure Rates through 2023 18

Table 3. SpaceX Market Milestones 22

Table 4. Rocket Lab Market Milestones 22

Figure 1. U.S. Launches per Year, 1980-1990 7

Figure 2. U.S. Launches per Year, 1957-2023 12

Figures 3A and 3B. U.S. Launch Company Domestic Market Share (1957-1995) 13

Figure 4. Launch Company Corporate Foundings, Mergers and Acquisitions 15

Figures 5A and 5B. U.S. Launch Company Domestic Market Share (1996-2023) 17

Figure 6. Satellite Companies: Founding Dates and Operating Status 19

Figures 7A and 7B. U.S. Rockets and Payloads Launched, Starlink Breakout 20

Figure 8. Launch Companies: Founding Date and Operating Status 21

Figures 9A and 9B. Launches by Company Nationality: Total and Ratio 24

Figure 10. U.S. Launch Annual Launch Failure Rate 25