목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 3
Non-technical summary 4
1. Introduction 6
2. Data and Empirical Strategy 11
2.1. Bundesbank Online Panel of Firms 12
2.2. Monetary Policy and Innovation Module: Identification 13
3. Systematic Monetary Policy: Evidence from a Major Rate Hike Episode 16
3.1. Short-run Innovation Investment Response 17
3.2. Persistent Innovation Cuts: Medium-run Response 19
3.3. Firm-level Determinants and Persistence 20
4. Scenario Analysis 22
4.1. Effect of Policy Rate Hikes and Cuts 23
4.2. Heterogeneity: Firm-level Determinants 26
4.3. Transmission Mechanisms 27
4.4. Forward Guidance and Innovation 28
5. Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Implications 31
6. Conclusion 34
References 36
Appendix 41
A. Monetary Policy and Innovation Survey 41
B. Additional Results 44
Acknowledgements 47
Tables 17
Table 1. Firms' Short-run Response: Change in Innovation Investments 2022-2023 17
Table 2. Firms' Medium-run Response: Change in Planned Investment for 2024-2025 19
Table 3. Short-run vs. Medium-run Innovation Investment Response Comparison 20
Table 4. Probability to Cut Innovation Investment in the Short and Medium Run 21
Table 5. Change in investment plans 2024-2025, intensive margin 22
Table 6. Effect of Policy Rate Changes 24
Table 7. Policy Rate Changes: Transmission Mechanisms 29
Table 8. Policy Rate Scenarios (detailed) 45
Table 9. Policy Rate Scenarios (firms with non-zero innovation investment 2024-25) 46
Figures 18
Figure 1. Distribution of Intensity of Innovation Investment Cuts (2022-2023) 18
