Preface i

Executive summary iii

Table of contents vi

Figures vii

1 Introduction 1

Methodology 3

2 How far away is artificial general intelligence? 4

What today’s frontier AI systems can do 4

Will rapid progress in frontier AI scale towards AGI? 7

What would it mean to achieve AGI? 18

3 How would AGI affect geopolitics? 21

AGI-induced power shifts could lead to global instability 23

AGI could shift power to individuals or AI systems themselves 24

Expected power shifts are driving competing superpowers to treat AI and AGI as a strategic priority 26

4 Is Europe sufficiently prepared for a fast transition to AGI? 29

Dimension 1 Strategic awareness 31

Dimension 2 Competitive positioning and leverage 33

Dimension 3 Robustness of current policy strategies 48

5 Recommendation the European Commission President should commission an AGI Preparedness Report 52

Why a report instead of concrete action recommendations? 53

Learning from the Draghi Report on EU Competitiveness 54

Core questions an AGI Preparedness Report should address 57

6 Conclusion 62

Glossary 64

References 68