Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Non-technical summary 3

1. Introduction 5

2. Institutional background and framework 8

3. Data 12

4. Empirical strategy 15

5. Empirical results 19

5.1. All fields 19

5.2. Distinguishing between fields 22

5.3. Robustness tests 25

6. Discussion 28

7. Conclusions 30

References 33

Appendix A: Additional Tables and Robustness Tests 38

Appendix B: Replication of Dataset 53

Acknowledgements 55

Table 1. Top Journals by Field 13

Table 2. China Share of Articles by Field and Time Period 15

Table 3. US Share of Articles by Field and Time Period 15

Table 4. Scientific Output in China and the Rest of the World: Difference-in-Differences Results 21

Table 5. Scientific Output in China by Field Priority: Triple-Difference Results for Targeted Fields 24

Table 6. Frequency of Articles with External Funding or Grants 26

Figure 1. Year-by-Year Estimates of China's Scientific Output Relative to the Rest of the World 22

Figure 2. Year-by-Year Estimates of China's Scientific Output in NMLP-Targeted versus Non-Targeted Fields 25

Table A1. Journals Considered in the Analysis, by Field 38

Table A2. Summary Statistics for the Country-Field Dataset, 2000-2022 40

Table A3. Difference-in-Differences Controlling for Research Funding 41

Table A4. Triple-Difference Controlling for Research Funding 42

Table A5. Difference-in-Differences Excluding International Collaborations 43

Table A6. Triple-Difference Excluding International Collaborations 44

Table A7. Difference-in-Differences Controlling for Researcher Density 45

Table A8. Triple-Difference Controlling for Researcher Density 46

Table A9. Difference-in-Differences with Institution-Normalized Output 47

Table A10. Triple-Difference with Institution-Normalized Output 48

Table A11. Difference-in-Differences for NMLP Fields Only 49

Table A12. Difference-in-Differences for Non-NMLP Fields Only 50

Table A13. Difference-in-Differences with Alternative Specifications 51

Table A14. Triple-Difference with Alternative Specifications 52