Executive summary 2

Recommendations 3

1. Darwin Dialogue 2026: from exposure to endurance 4

2. Policy progress since the Darwin Dialogue 2024 4

3. What the dialogue discussed 5

4. Analysis 8

The diminishing utility of ‘critical minerals’ as an analytical category 8

Mineral-specific pathways: from category management to industrial design 9

The midstream gap 10

Demand signals, offtake and market creation 11

Political price risk and strategic market distortion 11

Trusted high-ESG supply chains as a strategic advantage 12

Allied coordination 13

Northern Australia as a strategic industrial platform 13

Workforce, institutions and the ‘young guns’ challenge 13

The decision architecture Australia needs 14

5. Competitive endurance architecture 15

6. Final judgement 17

Notes 18

Acronyms and abbreviations 18