Preface i

Executive summary ii

Figures x

Tables x

Boxes xi

Abbreviations xii

Acknowledgements xiii

Chapter 1. Introduction 1

  1.1. Russia’s updated nuclear deterrence policy and transatlantic burden-shifting provide the context of this study 1

  1.2. Transatlantic burden-shifting raises important questions for the future of nuclear deterrence in Europe 3

  1.3. The UK’s Ministry of Defence commissioned a study to map NATO Allies’ perceptions of Russia’s evolving nuclear policy and the role of the UK and French nuclear deterrents 5

  1.4. The research team employed a qualitative multi-method approach, combining a literature review, scenario development and research interviews with non-governmental experts 6

  1.5. Caveats and limitations 9

  1.6. Structure of this report 10

Chapter 2. Assessing Russia’s revised nuclear declaratory policy 11

  2.1. Overview of the 2024 ‘Fundamentals of State Policy’ 11

  2.2. Analysis and implications of the ‘Fundamentals of State Policy’ 13

  2.3. Russian deployments to Belarus send a deterrent message but do not alter the strategic balance with NATO 19

Chapter 3. The role of the UK in NATO’s nuclear posture: Expert perceptions and implications 25

  3.1. Overview of UK nuclear declaratory policy and posture 27

  3.2. Perceptions of the UK’s nuclear declaratory policy 29

  3.3. Perceptions of the UK’s nuclear forces 31

  3.4. Perceptions of the UK’s nuclear signalling 34

Chapter 4. The role of France in NATO’s nuclear posture: Expert perceptions and implications 36

  4.1. Overview of France’s nuclear declaratory policy and posture 37

  4.2. Perceptions of France’s nuclear declaratory policy 40

  4.3. Perceptions of France’s nuclear forces 43

  4.4. Perceptions of France’s nuclear signalling 44

Chapter 5. Future dilemmas for NATO’s nuclear posture: Insights on the roles of the UK and France from a scenario exercise 46

  5.1. Scenario variation 1: Russian grey-zone aggression against NATO while US commitment remains strong 48

  5.2. Scenario variation 2: Russian grey-zone aggression against NATO amid reduced US commitment 51

  5.3. Scenario variation 3: Direct Russian attack on NATO while US commitment remains strong 55

  5.4. Scenario variation 4: Direct Russian attack on NATO amid reduced US commitment 58

Chapter 6. Towards a future framework for nuclear deterrence in Europe: Key conceptual questions 62

References 69

Annex A. Interview participants 78