Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Measuring Advances in AI and Robotics 8

2.1. Patent Data 8

2.2. Develop New AI and Robot Measures 8

2.3. Validation of Measures 10

3. AI and Job Tasks: Data and Empirical Strategy 11

3.1. Data on Tasks Performed on the Job 11

3.2. Empirical Strategy 13

3.3. Balancing Test: Do Tasks Predict Future Exposure? 14

4. The Impact of AI on Tasks Performed on the Job 16

4.1. Industry-level Correlations 16

4.2. AI and Worker-Level Tasks 18

4.3. High-level Versus Low-level Routine Tasks 22

4.4. AI and Job Tasks by Worker Skill 23

5. AI and Labor Market Outcomes 27

5.1. Administrative Labor Market Data 27

5.2. Estimation Approach 28

5.3. Displacement Effects of AI and Robots 28

5.4. AI and Worker Reallocation 30

5.5. Impact of AI and Robots on Earnings 31

6. Conclusion 32

References 35

A. Appendix 38

Table 1. Balancing test 15

Table 2. AI and Job Reallocation 31

Figure 1. AI, Robots, and Task Changes at the Industry Level 17

Figure 2. AI, Robots and Job Tasks at the Worker Level 19

Figure 3. AI and Detailed Job Tasks 21

Figure 4. AI and Low- versus High-Level Routine Tasks 23

Figure 5. AI and Detailed Job Tasks by Worker Skill 25

Figure 6. AI and Routine Tasks for Low- and High-skilled Workers 26

Figure 7. Employment effects of AI and Robots 29

Figure 8. Impact of AI on Earnings 33

Table A.1. Industries with the Highest Number of AI and Robot Patents 45

Table A.2. Descriptives of Task Data 46

Table A.3. Top occupations performing individual tasks (part 1) 47

Table A.4. Top occupations performing individual tasks (part 2) 48

Table A.5. Technology and Worker-level Task Shares 49

Table A.6. Comparing the Effects across Time 50

Table A.7. Top occupations performing high-level and low-level routine tasks 51

Table A.8. Descriptive Statistics of Social Security Data (SIAB) 52

Table A.9. Robustness: AI and Job Reallocation 53

Figure A.1. Evolution of AI and Robot Patents over Time 38

Figure A.2. Link between patents and other measures 39

Figure A.3. Robustness: AI and Robots and Job Tasks 40

Figure A.4. Robustness: AI and Low- versus High-Level Routine Tasks 41

Figure A.5. Robustness: Employment effects of AI and Robots 42

Figure A.6. Robustness: Impact of AI on Earnings 43

Figure A.7. Robots and Detailed Job Tasks 44